MSFT chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.1% | -2.0% | 7.6% | 40% |
| Day 2 | +0.3% | -0.1% | 1.6% | 40% |
| Day 3 | -0.1% | -0.3% | 2.3% | 30% |
| 5-day | +0.2% | -1.2% | 12.4% | 40% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 beat | 4.24 | 4.74 | +11.8% | +12.1% | +15.5% | +10.8% | +13.8% |
| 2026-04-29 beat | 4.07 | 4.27 | +4.9% | -3.2% | -3.9% | +3.2% | +12.9% |
| 2026-01-28 beat | 3.92 | 4.14 | +5.7% | -8.6% | -10.0% | -9.2% | -8.1% |
| 2025-10-29 beat | 3.66 | 4.13 | +12.7% | -2.0% | -2.9% | -5.5% | -7.4% |
| 2025-07-30 beat | 3.38 | 3.65 | +8.1% | +8.2% | +3.9% | -2.4% | -5.0% |
| 2025-04-30 beat | 3.22 | 3.46 | +7.4% | +9.1% | +7.6% | +3.0% | +8.6% |
| 2025-01-29 beat | 3.12 | 3.23 | +3.5% | -5.3% | -6.2% | +0.2% | -6.4% |
| 2024-10-30 beat | 3.11 | 3.30 | +6.1% | -4.0% | -6.1% | +4.7% | +6.1% |
| 2024-07-30 beat | 2.94 | 2.95 | +0.2% | -0.6% | -1.1% | -4.8% | -1.3% |
| 2024-04-25 beat | 2.84 | 2.94 | +3.4% | +3.3% | +1.8% | +0.1% | +5.9% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.