MSFT chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.8% | +0.9% | 5.2% | 62% |
| Day 2 | +0.1% | +0.1% | 1.8% | 52% |
| Day 3 | +0.1% | -0.1% | 1.9% | 47% |
| 5-day | +1.3% | +1.4% | 7.5% | 58% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 beat | 4.24 | 4.74 | +11.8% | +12.1% | +15.5% | +10.8% | +13.8% |
| 2026-04-29 beat | 4.07 | 4.27 | +4.9% | -3.2% | -3.9% | +3.2% | +12.9% |
| 2026-01-28 beat | 3.92 | 4.14 | +5.7% | -8.6% | -10.0% | -9.2% | -8.1% |
| 2025-10-29 beat | 3.66 | 4.13 | +12.7% | -2.0% | -2.9% | -5.5% | -7.4% |
| 2025-07-30 beat | 3.38 | 3.65 | +8.1% | +8.2% | +3.9% | -2.4% | -5.0% |
| 2025-04-30 beat | 3.22 | 3.46 | +7.4% | +9.1% | +7.6% | +3.0% | +8.6% |
| 2025-01-29 beat | 3.12 | 3.23 | +3.5% | -5.3% | -6.2% | +0.2% | -6.4% |
| 2024-10-30 beat | 3.11 | 3.30 | +6.1% | -4.0% | -6.1% | +4.7% | +6.1% |
| 2024-07-30 beat | 2.94 | 2.95 | +0.2% | -0.6% | -1.1% | -4.8% | -1.3% |
| 2024-04-25 beat | 2.84 | 2.94 | +3.4% | +3.3% | +1.8% | +0.1% | +5.9% |
| 2024-01-30 beat | 2.77 | 2.93 | +5.8% | -0.4% | -2.7% | +4.1% | +4.5% |
| 2023-10-24 beat | 2.65 | 2.99 | +12.8% | +4.4% | +3.1% | +1.6% | +10.8% |
| 2023-07-25 beat | 2.55 | 2.69 | +5.6% | -2.7% | -3.8% | -3.0% | -5.3% |
| 2023-04-25 beat | 2.23 | 2.45 | +9.8% | +7.7% | +7.2% | +3.1% | +10.3% |
| 2023-01-24 beat | 2.32 | 2.32 | +0.2% | -3.1% | -0.6% | +5.0% | +3.6% |
| 2022-10-25 beat | 2.31 | 2.35 | +1.9% | -7.8% | -7.7% | -4.9% | +7.0% |
| 2022-07-26 miss | 2.29 | 2.23 | -2.7% | +3.7% | +6.7% | +5.1% | +3.8% |
| 2022-04-26 beat | 2.20 | 2.22 | +1.1% | +4.4% | +4.8% | +2.4% | -6.1% |
| 2022-01-25 beat | 2.32 | 2.48 | +7.0% | +6.8% | +2.8% | +5.6% | +0.2% |
| 2021-10-26 beat | 2.08 | 2.27 | +9.3% | +1.9% | +4.2% | +3.4% | +2.0% |
| 2021-07-27 beat | 1.93 | 2.17 | +12.7% | +0.9% | -0.1% | +0.1% | +4.5% |
| 2021-04-27 beat | 1.78 | 1.95 | +9.7% | -2.2% | -2.8% | -3.2% | -2.1% |
| 2021-01-26 beat | 1.64 | 2.03 | +24.0% | +2.4% | +0.2% | +4.3% | -0.2% |
| 2020-10-27 beat | 1.55 | 1.82 | +17.7% | -2.6% | -5.0% | +6.8% | +6.2% |
| 2020-07-22 beat | 1.37 | 1.46 | +6.4% | -2.2% | -4.3% | +0.7% | +5.2% |
| 2020-04-29 beat | 1.27 | 1.40 | +10.3% | +1.4% | +1.0% | +2.4% | +2.0% |
| 2020-01-29 beat | 1.32 | 1.51 | +14.0% | +3.6% | +2.8% | +6.3% | +0.0% |
| 2019-10-23 beat | 1.24 | 1.38 | +11.0% | +1.6% | +2.0% | +2.5% | +6.9% |
| 2019-07-18 beat | 1.21 | 1.37 | +12.9% | +2.8% | +0.1% | +3.5% | +1.3% |
| 2019-04-24 beat | 1.00 | 1.14 | +14.2% | +4.0% | +3.3% | -2.3% | -2.3% |
| 2019-01-30 beat | 1.09 | 1.10 | +0.8% | -2.4% | -1.8% | +0.8% | +7.5% |
| 2018-10-24 beat | 0.97 | 1.14 | +18.1% | +4.1% | +5.8% | -2.2% | -1.7% |
| 2018-07-19 beat | 1.08 | 1.13 | +4.8% | +3.5% | +1.8% | +1.3% | +0.6% |
| 2018-04-26 beat | 0.85 | 0.95 | +11.7% | +3.5% | +1.7% | -0.7% | +2.3% |
| 2018-01-31 beat | 0.87 | 0.96 | +10.9% | -0.2% | -0.8% | -9.8% | -0.7% |
| 2017-10-26 beat | 0.73 | 0.84 | +15.4% | +7.1% | +6.4% | +0.4% | +1.3% |
| 2017-07-20 beat | 0.71 | 0.98 | +38.7% | -1.0% | -0.6% | -1.0% | -2.2% |
| 2017-04-27 beat | 0.70 | 0.73 | +4.7% | +0.9% | +0.3% | +0.8% | +2.8% |
| 2017-01-26 beat | 0.79 | 0.84 | +7.0% | +1.7% | +2.3% | -3.2% | -2.7% |
| 2016-10-20 beat | 0.68 | 0.76 | +11.4% | +5.3% | +4.2% | +0.4% | +2.0% |
| 2016-07-19 beat | 0.58 | 0.69 | +18.2% | +5.8% | +5.3% | +0.5% | +3.0% |
| 2016-04-21 miss | 0.64 | 0.62 | -3.0% | -6.9% | -7.2% | -3.7% | -3.4% |
| 2016-01-28 beat | 0.71 | 0.78 | +10.0% | +5.1% | +5.8% | -8.9% | -4.6% |
| 2015-10-22 beat | 0.59 | 0.67 | +14.5% | +8.9% | +10.1% | -0.4% | +2.5% |
| 2015-07-21 beat | 0.57 | 0.62 | +9.2% | -3.9% | -3.7% | +1.6% | +0.3% |
| 2015-04-23 beat | 0.53 | 0.62 | +17.3% | +5.4% | +10.5% | +1.7% | -2.7% |
| 2015-01-26 beat | 0.74 | 0.77 | +4.1% | -8.6% | -9.3% | -2.5% | +3.3% |
| 2014-10-23 beat | 0.54 | 0.65 | +19.9% | +4.0% | +2.5% | +1.8% | +3.2% |
| 2014-07-22 miss | 0.60 | 0.55 | -8.3% | +1.4% | +0.1% | -2.9% | +0.8% |
| 2014-04-24 beat | 0.63 | 0.68 | +8.2% | +1.1% | +0.1% | -0.6% | +0.7% |
| 2014-01-23 beat | 0.68 | 0.78 | +14.4% | +3.9% | +2.1% | +2.8% | +2.0% |
| 2013-10-24 beat | 0.54 | 0.62 | +14.0% | +6.4% | +6.0% | -0.6% | +5.3% |
| 2013-07-18 miss | 0.74 | 0.66 | -11.4% | -8.6% | -11.4% | +0.7% | +0.0% |
| 2013-04-18 beat | 0.67 | 0.72 | +7.9% | +2.9% | +3.4% | +6.8% | +17.8% |
| 2013-01-24 beat | 0.76 | 0.76 | +0.5% | -0.2% | +0.9% | +0.2% | -1.8% |
| 2012-10-18 miss | 0.56 | 0.53 | -5.7% | -1.5% | -2.9% | -1.5% | -5.9% |
| 2012-07-19 beat | 0.62 | 0.73 | +18.1% | +1.1% | -1.8% | -1.2% | +2.1% |
| 2012-04-19 beat | 0.58 | 0.60 | +2.9% | +3.7% | +4.5% | -1.4% | -8.2% |
| 2012-01-19 beat | 0.76 | 0.78 | +3.1% | +2.5% | +5.7% | -1.6% | +5.8% |
| 2011-10-20 beat | 0.68 | 0.68 | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | -0.7% | -8.0% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.