MSM chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.5% | -0.2% | 4.2% | 47% |
| Day 2 | -0.3% | -0.6% | 2.1% | 42% |
| Day 3 | +0.1% | +0.4% | 1.5% | 55% |
| 5-day | -0.1% | +0.0% | 5.5% | 47% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 beat | 1.27 | 1.43 | +12.6% | +0.6% | +3.7% | -2.2% | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-01 miss | 0.84 | 0.82 | -1.9% | -4.0% | -0.8% | +5.0% | +12.1% |
| 2026-01-07 beat | 0.95 | 0.99 | +4.8% | -3.0% | -4.5% | +4.4% | +17.9% |
| 2025-10-23 beat | 1.03 | 1.09 | +6.3% | +3.4% | +3.1% | -5.2% | -1.8% |
| 2025-07-01 beat | 1.03 | 1.08 | +5.1% | +4.8% | +6.2% | +0.4% | -4.1% |
| 2025-04-03 miss | 0.72 | 0.72 | -0.5% | -2.8% | -5.2% | +0.7% | +2.8% |
| 2025-01-08 beat | 0.73 | 0.86 | +18.3% | +5.1% | +3.5% | -1.6% | -2.5% |
| 2024-10-24 miss | 1.07 | 1.03 | -3.9% | -3.5% | -3.8% | +1.6% | +9.8% |
| 2024-07-02 beat | 1.33 | 1.33 | +0.2% | -0.3% | +2.3% | -5.0% | +5.4% |
| 2024-03-28 beat | 1.16 | 1.18 | +2.0% | -0.8% | -2.5% | -1.5% | -4.1% |
| 2024-01-09 miss | 1.30 | 1.25 | -3.8% | -3.5% | -3.1% | +2.1% | +6.2% |
| 2023-10-25 beat | 1.62 | 1.64 | +1.4% | -0.5% | -3.0% | +3.1% | +7.0% |
| 2023-06-29 beat | 1.74 | 1.74 | +0.0% | -3.1% | -1.7% | +1.2% | +7.0% |
| 2023-04-04 beat | 1.36 | 1.45 | +6.8% | +4.3% | -0.9% | +4.6% | +7.1% |
| 2023-01-05 beat | 1.47 | 1.48 | +1.0% | -0.4% | -5.5% | +4.5% | +15.4% |
| 2022-10-20 beat | 1.75 | 1.79 | +2.1% | +0.3% | -0.9% | +5.8% | +11.0% |
| 2022-06-29 beat | 1.74 | 1.82 | +4.7% | +1.9% | +2.4% | -1.1% | +9.7% |
| 2022-03-30 beat | 1.23 | 1.29 | +5.1% | +1.0% | +3.9% | -1.8% | -3.5% |
| 2021-12-22 beat | 1.20 | 1.25 | +4.2% | +0.7% | -0.4% | +0.4% | +0.3% |
| 2021-10-20 miss | 1.28 | 1.26 | -1.2% | -0.5% | -2.4% | -2.7% | +1.1% |
| 2021-07-07 beat | 1.39 | 1.42 | +2.2% | +0.8% | +0.7% | -2.1% | -6.3% |
| 2021-04-07 beat | 1.02 | 1.03 | +0.6% | -2.9% | -5.4% | +1.2% | +8.1% |
| 2021-01-06 beat | 1.09 | 1.10 | +1.2% | +0.4% | +1.2% | -0.4% | +2.8% |
| 2020-10-27 beat | 0.94 | 1.09 | +15.5% | +0.0% | +2.2% | +13.4% | +26.0% |
| 2020-07-08 beat | 1.25 | 1.40 | +11.6% | -5.7% | -7.5% | -3.3% | -0.1% |
| 2020-04-08 beat | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.0% | +4.5% | +5.4% | -4.2% | -1.0% |
| 2020-01-08 beat | 1.17 | 1.21 | +3.1% | +2.3% | +0.1% | +1.2% | -7.6% |
| 2019-10-24 beat | 1.23 | 1.30 | +5.9% | +1.0% | +1.3% | -3.1% | -1.5% |
| 2019-07-10 miss | 1.49 | 1.45 | -2.8% | -3.3% | -3.8% | +2.6% | -0.9% |
| 2019-04-10 miss | 1.26 | 1.24 | -1.1% | -5.1% | -2.5% | +2.6% | -5.7% |
| 2019-01-09 beat | 1.32 | 1.33 | +0.4% | -1.5% | -1.4% | +4.0% | +6.5% |
| 2018-10-30 beat | 1.29 | 1.32 | +2.1% | -0.5% | +6.5% | +6.5% | +7.3% |
| 2018-07-11 miss | 1.39 | 1.39 | -0.1% | -7.3% | -4.5% | +2.6% | +4.7% |
| 2018-04-10 beat | 1.31 | 1.34 | +2.0% | +3.4% | +0.1% | -2.7% | +0.8% |
| 2018-01-10 miss | 1.06 | 1.05 | -0.8% | -6.1% | -5.3% | -0.4% | -3.6% |
| 2017-10-31 beat | 0.99 | 1.07 | +8.0% | +5.2% | +4.3% | -1.4% | +8.6% |
| 2017-07-12 beat | 1.09 | 1.09 | +0.2% | -8.2% | -14.1% | -4.0% | -7.0% |
| 2017-04-06 beat | 0.90 | 0.93 | +3.5% | -0.3% | -6.2% | -7.4% | -7.5% |
| 2017-01-11 beat | 0.93 | 0.95 | +2.1% | +2.2% | +7.9% | +0.6% | +5.0% |
| 2016-11-01 beat | 0.98 | 1.02 | +3.6% | +1.2% | +0.0% | +4.5% | +23.4% |
| 2016-07-06 beat | 1.00 | 1.05 | +4.6% | -1.1% | +2.4% | +0.0% | -0.4% |
| 2016-04-06 beat | 0.77 | 0.80 | +3.6% | -4.5% | -1.6% | +3.2% | +2.8% |
| 2016-01-06 beat | 0.87 | 0.89 | +2.3% | +0.2% | +6.6% | -1.4% | +8.8% |
| 2015-10-27 beat | 0.95 | 0.96 | +0.6% | -0.1% | -0.1% | +8.1% | +2.8% |
| 2015-07-07 beat | 0.96 | 1.03 | +7.2% | +5.0% | +3.1% | +0.5% | +0.6% |
| 2015-04-08 miss | 0.85 | 0.84 | -1.6% | +4.0% | +0.3% | +1.7% | +0.8% |
| 2015-01-07 miss | 0.98 | 0.95 | -2.6% | -3.0% | -4.9% | -0.1% | +1.5% |
| 2014-10-28 beat | 1.01 | 1.02 | +0.8% | -5.7% | -0.7% | -3.2% | -7.1% |
| 2014-07-09 miss | 1.06 | 1.06 | -0.2% | -3.4% | -4.7% | +0.4% | -2.4% |
| 2014-04-09 beat | 0.85 | 0.87 | +2.5% | +4.0% | +3.9% | -2.6% | -0.1% |
| 2014-01-08 beat | 0.95 | 0.99 | +4.2% | +0.7% | +3.8% | +4.4% | -3.2% |
| 2013-10-30 beat | 0.90 | 0.95 | +6.1% | +0.8% | -6.9% | +0.1% | -1.0% |
| 2013-07-10 beat | 0.97 | 1.05 | +8.0% | +0.1% | +0.5% | -1.1% | -0.7% |
| 2013-04-10 beat | 0.90 | 0.90 | +0.1% | -3.3% | -4.0% | -2.2% | +1.1% |
| 2013-01-10 beat | 1.01 | 1.01 | +0.5% | -6.5% | -4.4% | +3.7% | +12.2% |
| 2012-10-31 beat | 1.07 | 1.11 | +3.5% | -0.7% | +5.5% | -3.9% | -2.6% |
| 2012-06-28 miss | 1.11 | 1.10 | -0.5% | +1.5% | +4.2% | -2.4% | +7.3% |
| 2012-04-04 beat | 0.95 | 0.95 | +0.1% | -0.9% | -2.0% | -5.5% | -11.5% |
| 2012-01-05 beat | 0.93 | 0.95 | +1.7% | -1.1% | +1.0% | +0.6% | +6.0% |
| 2011-10-26 beat | 0.87 | 0.93 | +7.5% | +2.3% | +1.4% | -2.5% | -9.2% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.