MTCH chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.3% | -2.2% | 10.0% | 50% |
| Day 2 | -1.2% | -1.6% | 2.7% | 30% |
| Day 3 | +1.2% | +1.2% | 2.5% | 70% |
| 5-day | -1.3% | -2.4% | 9.6% | 40% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 miss | 0.96 | 0.91 | -4.5% | -8.1% | -7.5% | -4.1% | +11.2% |
| 2026-05-05 beat | 0.86 | 0.97 | +13.2% | -3.6% | +0.9% | -5.1% | -9.4% |
| 2026-02-03 beat | 1.02 | 1.06 | +3.7% | +14.8% | +5.9% | +2.6% | -0.5% |
| 2025-11-04 miss | 0.91 | 0.83 | -9.4% | -1.1% | +5.2% | -0.6% | +4.0% |
| 2025-08-05 miss | 0.77 | 0.71 | -8.2% | +6.6% | +10.5% | +3.9% | +2.4% |
| 2025-05-08 beat | 0.66 | 0.68 | +3.7% | +0.5% | -9.6% | +5.5% | +16.2% |
| 2025-02-04 miss | 0.83 | 0.82 | -1.9% | -4.3% | -7.9% | +1.3% | -2.9% |
| 2024-11-06 beat | 0.79 | 0.79 | +0.3% | -15.3% | -17.9% | +0.5% | +7.3% |
| 2024-07-30 miss | 0.73 | 0.69 | -5.2% | +12.8% | +13.2% | -8.4% | -2.5% |
| 2024-05-07 beat | 0.62 | 0.64 | +2.7% | -8.1% | -5.4% | +5.2% | +7.4% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-14); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.