PGR chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.3% | +0.7% | 3.7% | 55% |
| Day 2 | -0.5% | -0.1% | 2.5% | 45% |
| Day 3 | +0.5% | +0.9% | 1.5% | 60% |
| 5-day | -0.4% | -0.2% | 4.5% | 50% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 beat | 4.84 | 4.85 | +0.3% | -8.2% | -9.4% | -0.3% | +1.8% |
| 2026-04-15 beat | 4.88 | 4.96 | +1.6% | +1.3% | +2.4% | +0.7% | -2.2% |
| 2026-01-28 beat | 4.43 | 4.67 | +5.3% | -1.0% | +2.2% | -3.4% | +0.4% |
| 2025-10-15 miss | 5.05 | 4.05 | -19.7% | -5.9% | -5.8% | -1.7% | -1.5% |
| 2025-07-16 beat | 4.43 | 4.88 | +10.0% | +1.2% | +1.8% | +0.4% | +1.8% |
| 2025-04-16 miss | 4.78 | 4.65 | -2.6% | +1.8% | -0.4% | -3.6% | +4.0% |
| 2025-01-28 beat | 3.56 | 4.08 | +14.6% | -2.7% | +0.6% | +1.1% | +14.4% |
| 2024-10-15 miss | 3.67 | 3.58 | -2.3% | +0.8% | -0.1% | -1.3% | +3.9% |
| 2024-07-16 beat | 2.01 | 2.65 | +31.7% | +2.5% | -3.3% | +2.8% | +11.6% |
| 2024-04-12 beat | 3.21 | 3.76 | +17.1% | +2.8% | +0.8% | +5.3% | +4.2% |
| 2024-01-24 beat | 2.43 | 2.97 | +22.6% | +6.6% | +4.7% | -0.1% | +7.3% |
| 2023-10-31 beat | 1.71 | 2.11 | +23.4% | +0.0% | +1.9% | +0.3% | +3.8% |
| 2023-08-01 miss | 0.84 | 0.42 | -50.6% | +0.3% | +1.1% | -0.7% | +5.2% |
| 2023-04-13 miss | 1.35 | 0.66 | -50.9% | -4.9% | -6.7% | +0.1% | -3.5% |
| 2023-01-25 beat | 1.43 | 1.51 | +5.7% | -0.5% | +4.9% | +1.9% | +4.7% |
| 2022-10-13 miss | 0.92 | 0.53 | -42.2% | -6.5% | +0.8% | -2.9% | +3.1% |
| 2022-07-15 miss | 0.93 | 0.79 | -14.9% | +2.6% | +3.3% | -4.2% | +5.1% |
| 2022-04-14 miss | 1.24 | 1.15 | -7.7% | -1.4% | -1.6% | -3.4% | -2.1% |
| 2022-01-26 beat | 1.02 | 1.08 | +5.8% | +2.3% | -1.5% | +1.7% | -0.4% |
| 2021-10-14 miss | 0.22 | 0.15 | -32.7% | -0.6% | -0.9% | +5.1% | +6.8% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.