PGR chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.1% | +0.2% | 3.9% | 50% |
| Day 2 | +0.3% | +0.7% | 2.5% | 70% |
| Day 3 | -0.2% | -0.2% | 1.5% | 40% |
| 5-day | -1.1% | -0.9% | 4.8% | 40% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 beat | 4.84 | 4.85 | +0.3% | -8.2% | -9.4% | -0.3% | +1.8% |
| 2026-04-15 beat | 4.88 | 4.96 | +1.6% | +1.3% | +2.4% | +0.7% | -2.2% |
| 2026-01-28 beat | 4.43 | 4.67 | +5.3% | -1.0% | +2.2% | -3.4% | +0.4% |
| 2025-10-15 miss | 5.05 | 4.05 | -19.7% | -5.9% | -5.8% | -1.7% | -1.5% |
| 2025-07-16 beat | 4.43 | 4.88 | +10.0% | +1.2% | +1.8% | +0.4% | +1.8% |
| 2025-04-16 miss | 4.78 | 4.65 | -2.6% | +1.8% | -0.4% | -3.6% | +4.0% |
| 2025-01-28 beat | 3.56 | 4.08 | +14.6% | -2.7% | +0.6% | +1.1% | +14.4% |
| 2024-10-15 miss | 3.67 | 3.58 | -2.3% | +0.8% | -0.1% | -1.3% | +3.9% |
| 2024-07-16 beat | 2.01 | 2.65 | +31.7% | +2.5% | -3.3% | +2.8% | +11.6% |
| 2024-04-12 beat | 3.21 | 3.76 | +17.1% | +2.8% | +0.8% | +5.3% | +4.2% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.