SAM chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +1.1% | +2.6% | 5.4% | 60% |
| Day 2 | -0.5% | -0.5% | 2.8% | 50% |
| Day 3 | -0.2% | -0.2% | 1.9% | 40% |
| 5-day | -1.4% | +0.1% | 6.4% | 50% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 miss | 4.83 | 3.65 | -24.4% | -1.5% | +3.2% | +1.7% | +5.2% |
| 2026-04-30 miss | 1.97 | 1.64 | -16.8% | -10.3% | -9.6% | -7.9% | -24.2% |
| 2026-02-24 beat | -2.51 | -2.12 | +15.6% | -8.7% | -4.3% | +6.6% | +7.3% |
| 2025-10-23 beat | 3.34 | 4.25 | +27.4% | +6.0% | +5.5% | -10.6% | -16.9% |
| 2025-07-24 beat | 3.96 | 5.45 | +37.6% | +10.4% | +6.5% | -2.6% | +1.1% |
| 2025-04-24 beat | 0.69 | 2.16 | +212.8% | +4.4% | +2.3% | -3.4% | -4.9% |
| 2025-02-25 miss | -1.33 | -1.68 | -26.0% | +0.3% | +3.0% | -1.5% | -0.4% |
| 2024-10-24 beat | 4.95 | 5.36 | +8.4% | -1.6% | -2.0% | -0.3% | +6.5% |
| 2024-07-25 miss | 5.02 | 4.61 | -8.2% | -3.1% | +7.5% | -4.0% | -3.6% |
| 2024-04-25 beat | -0.08 | 1.06 | +1376.2% | +9.7% | -1.4% | -2.1% | -8.4% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.