SMCI chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.8% | +1.1% | 16.2% | 50% |
| Day 2 | -1.9% | -0.7% | 6.4% | 40% |
| Day 3 | +2.1% | +0.8% | 5.4% | 50% |
| 5-day | +4.8% | +1.9% | 21.4% | 50% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 beat | 0.96 | 1.70 | +77.5% | +10.7% | +19.0% | -2.7% | +6.6% |
| 2026-05-05 beat | 0.62 | 0.84 | +34.5% | +13.0% | +24.5% | -7.7% | +20.1% |
| 2026-02-03 beat | 0.49 | 0.69 | +41.4% | +11.1% | +13.8% | -5.1% | -7.3% |
| 2025-11-04 miss | 0.39 | 0.35 | -10.1% | -5.1% | -11.3% | -9.8% | -17.5% |
| 2025-08-05 miss | 0.44 | 0.41 | -6.6% | -17.3% | -18.3% | -1.5% | -13.6% |
| 2025-05-06 beat | 0.30 | 0.31 | +3.8% | -5.6% | -1.4% | +38.5% | +27.9% |
| 2025-02-25 miss | 0.75 | 0.74 | -1.9% | +20.8% | +12.2% | -23.9% | -32.1% |
| 2024-08-06 miss | 0.81 | 0.63 | -23.2% | -13.7% | -20.1% | +17.1% | -21.6% |
| 2024-04-30 beat | 0.56 | 0.67 | +19.4% | -9.5% | -14.0% | +11.4% | +6.3% |
| 2024-01-29 beat | 0.52 | 0.56 | +8.3% | +10.4% | +3.5% | +32.9% | +68.8% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.