SMCI chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +4.1% | +3.8% | 14.1% | 63% |
| Day 2 | -0.0% | -0.2% | 5.5% | 47% |
| Day 3 | -0.5% | -0.9% | 4.2% | 33% |
| 5-day | +4.4% | +5.5% | 16.1% | 57% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 beat | 0.96 | 1.70 | +77.5% | +10.7% | +19.0% | -2.7% | +6.6% |
| 2026-05-05 beat | 0.62 | 0.84 | +34.5% | +13.0% | +24.5% | -7.7% | +20.1% |
| 2026-02-03 beat | 0.49 | 0.69 | +41.4% | +11.1% | +13.8% | -5.1% | -7.3% |
| 2025-11-04 miss | 0.39 | 0.35 | -10.1% | -5.1% | -11.3% | -9.8% | -17.5% |
| 2025-08-05 miss | 0.44 | 0.41 | -6.6% | -17.3% | -18.3% | -1.5% | -13.6% |
| 2025-05-06 beat | 0.30 | 0.31 | +3.8% | -5.6% | -1.4% | +38.5% | +27.9% |
| 2025-02-25 miss | 0.75 | 0.74 | -1.9% | +20.8% | +12.2% | -23.9% | -32.1% |
| 2024-08-06 miss | 0.81 | 0.63 | -23.2% | -13.7% | -20.1% | +17.1% | -21.6% |
| 2024-04-30 beat | 0.56 | 0.67 | +19.4% | -9.5% | -14.0% | +11.4% | +6.3% |
| 2024-01-29 beat | 0.52 | 0.56 | +8.3% | +10.4% | +3.5% | +32.9% | +68.8% |
| 2023-11-01 beat | 0.32 | 0.34 | +5.7% | +3.4% | -2.5% | +7.7% | +8.3% |
| 2023-08-08 beat | 0.29 | 0.35 | +20.7% | -14.5% | -23.4% | -4.7% | +5.5% |
| 2023-05-02 miss | 0.17 | 0.16 | -4.6% | +11.1% | +28.3% | +0.2% | +65.7% |
| 2023-01-31 beat | 0.30 | 0.33 | +7.7% | -0.5% | +10.2% | +6.9% | +22.7% |
| 2022-11-01 beat | 0.28 | 0.34 | +21.4% | +4.4% | +12.5% | -5.4% | +7.2% |
| 2022-08-09 beat | 0.23 | 0.26 | +11.7% | +9.6% | +9.5% | +6.1% | +4.9% |
| 2022-05-03 beat | 0.12 | 0.16 | +26.7% | +11.8% | +31.2% | -13.0% | -3.4% |
| 2022-02-01 beat | 0.08 | 0.09 | +13.2% | +4.4% | +5.1% | -11.8% | -5.1% |
| 2021-11-02 beat | 0.04 | 0.06 | +54.7% | +11.7% | +13.0% | +4.7% | +3.2% |
| 2021-08-10 beat | 0.08 | 0.08 | +3.9% | +2.4% | +0.6% | -8.2% | -5.7% |
| 2021-05-04 beat | 0.05 | 0.05 | +7.0% | -2.7% | -0.9% | -7.2% | +1.2% |
| 2021-02-02 beat | 0.04 | 0.06 | +44.0% | +2.4% | +4.0% | +2.1% | +2.7% |
| 2020-11-03 beat | 0.02 | 0.06 | +254.8% | +15.8% | +22.3% | +0.4% | +7.9% |
| 2020-08-11 beat | 0.05 | 0.07 | +29.1% | -8.7% | -14.7% | -0.4% | -1.3% |
| 2020-05-07 beat | 0.04 | 0.08 | +140.0% | +5.0% | +13.6% | -8.4% | +16.5% |
| 2020-02-06 miss | 0.07 | 0.06 | -16.2% | -3.0% | -2.5% | +1.7% | -11.5% |
| 2019-12-20 miss | 0.06 | 0.05 | -19.1% | +0.6% | -1.8% | -0.7% | +19.6% |
| 2019-12-19 miss | 0.07 | 0.05 | -32.5% | +1.3% | +8.8% | -2.6% | +16.8% |
| 2019-12-18 miss | 0.05 | 0.02 | -53.7% | -0.1% | +0.8% | +6.4% | +28.5% |
| 2017-08-03 beat | 0.04 | 0.04 | +7.7% | -2.2% | +0.2% | -0.9% | -2.0% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.