STM chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -6.0% | -7.3% | 10.2% | 30% |
| Day 2 | -1.2% | -1.6% | 1.8% | 20% |
| Day 3 | +0.3% | -0.1% | 2.4% | 50% |
| 5-day | -7.0% | -7.5% | 13.5% | 20% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 miss | 0.27 | 0.24 | -10.8% | -17.3% | -18.7% | -0.8% | -5.5% |
| 2026-04-23 miss | 0.18 | 0.04 | -77.6% | +7.3% | +10.8% | +10.9% | +34.5% |
| 2026-01-29 miss | 0.27 | 0.11 | -59.9% | -6.8% | -5.6% | +1.3% | +17.0% |
| 2025-10-23 beat | 0.22 | 0.29 | +33.5% | -11.1% | -13.3% | -3.2% | -13.0% |
| 2025-07-24 miss | 0.09 | 0.06 | -30.8% | -15.5% | -15.9% | -4.9% | +3.0% |
| 2025-04-24 beat | 0.05 | 0.07 | +48.6% | +7.1% | +7.2% | -2.6% | +4.6% |
| 2025-01-29 miss | 0.37 | 0.37 | -0.2% | -8.9% | -9.0% | +1.1% | +7.6% |
| 2024-10-31 beat | 0.32 | 0.37 | +14.6% | -0.7% | -1.5% | +0.0% | -3.8% |
| 2024-07-25 beat | 0.36 | 0.38 | +4.4% | -12.6% | -15.4% | -6.2% | -5.5% |
| 2024-04-25 miss | 0.65 | 0.54 | -16.6% | +1.0% | +1.1% | -8.0% | -1.7% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.