THS chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -3.4% | -4.8% | 10.5% | 10% |
| Day 2 | -1.7% | -1.1% | 3.6% | 30% |
| Day 3 | +0.7% | +0.5% | 2.4% | 60% |
| 5-day | -3.4% | -5.8% | 10.4% | 10% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
Each report's EPS vs. the same ticker's report ~1 year earlier. Skips any comparison where the prior-year EPS was zero or negative -- a swing from a loss to a profit is real, but "growth %" on a negative base isn't a meaningful number.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-10 miss | 0.57 | 0.43 | -24.2% | +21.2% | +22.7% | +0.8% | +1.8% |
| 2025-07-31 beat | 0.12 | 0.17 | +47.1% | +0.0% | -6.6% | -0.5% | -4.6% |
| 2025-05-06 beat | -0.16 | 0.03 | +119.1% | -0.6% | -5.8% | +5.9% | -1.1% |
| 2025-02-14 miss | 0.97 | 0.95 | -2.2% | +15.2% | -0.6% | -4.7% | -15.5% |
| 2024-11-12 miss | 0.75 | 0.74 | -0.8% | -16.7% | -14.3% | +5.3% | +6.7% |
| 2024-08-05 beat | 0.13 | 0.29 | +123.7% | +2.4% | -2.5% | -1.5% | +7.7% |
| 2024-05-06 miss | -0.01 | -0.03 | -328.6% | -1.7% | -7.2% | +1.1% | +6.7% |
| 2024-02-16 beat | 0.73 | 0.77 | +6.1% | -11.1% | -15.5% | +0.4% | +4.6% |
| 2023-08-07 miss | 0.42 | 0.42 | -1.1% | -0.5% | -3.8% | -4.7% | -10.5% |
| 2022-11-07 beat | 0.16 | 0.18 | +14.6% | -1.2% | -0.1% | -1.3% | -0.4% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
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