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THS chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -2.8% | -2.5% | 10.3% | 30% |
| Day 2 | +0.6% | +0.5% | 4.1% | 60% |
| Day 3 | -0.1% | -0.5% | 2.5% | 47% |
| 5-day | -0.8% | -2.9% | 12.9% | 40% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
Each report's EPS vs. the same ticker's report ~1 year earlier. Skips any comparison where the prior-year EPS was zero or negative -- a swing from a loss to a profit is real, but "growth %" on a negative base isn't a meaningful number.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-10 miss | 0.57 | 0.43 | -24.2% | +21.2% | +22.7% | +0.8% | +1.8% |
| 2025-07-31 beat | 0.12 | 0.17 | +47.1% | +0.0% | -6.6% | -0.5% | -4.6% |
| 2025-05-06 beat | -0.16 | 0.03 | +119.1% | -0.6% | -5.8% | +5.9% | -1.1% |
| 2025-02-14 miss | 0.97 | 0.95 | -2.2% | +15.2% | -0.6% | -4.7% | -15.5% |
| 2024-11-12 miss | 0.75 | 0.74 | -0.8% | -16.7% | -14.3% | +5.3% | +6.7% |
| 2024-08-05 beat | 0.13 | 0.29 | +123.7% | +2.4% | -2.5% | -1.5% | +7.7% |
| 2024-05-06 miss | -0.01 | -0.03 | -328.6% | -1.7% | -7.2% | +1.1% | +6.7% |
| 2024-02-16 beat | 0.73 | 0.77 | +6.1% | -11.1% | -15.5% | +0.4% | +4.6% |
| 2023-08-07 miss | 0.42 | 0.42 | -1.1% | -0.5% | -3.8% | -4.7% | -10.5% |
| 2022-11-07 beat | 0.16 | 0.18 | +14.6% | -1.2% | -0.1% | -1.3% | -0.4% |
| 2022-08-08 beat | -0.13 | -0.04 | +68.9% | +5.7% | +3.9% | +9.2% | -0.2% |
| 2022-05-09 beat | -0.52 | -0.15 | +71.2% | +2.5% | +14.5% | +7.2% | +11.8% |
| 2022-02-14 beat | 0.10 | 0.11 | +5.5% | +4.7% | +8.2% | +8.2% | -12.8% |
| 2021-11-08 miss | 0.50 | 0.46 | -7.8% | +2.9% | +4.1% | +1.6% | +5.9% |
| 2021-08-05 miss | 0.26 | 0.26 | -0.8% | -7.3% | -7.8% | -1.1% | -2.0% |
| 2021-05-06 beat | 0.33 | 0.36 | +9.8% | -1.9% | +0.1% | +6.4% | +2.9% |
| 2021-02-11 beat | 1.07 | 1.07 | +0.4% | -2.2% | -2.8% | +0.5% | +8.2% |
| 2020-11-05 beat | 0.61 | 0.71 | +15.5% | +2.1% | +0.8% | +0.2% | +7.9% |
| 2020-08-06 beat | 0.48 | 0.58 | +22.1% | -0.5% | -2.6% | -2.8% | -3.0% |
| 2020-05-07 beat | 0.33 | 0.37 | +13.6% | +3.2% | -0.9% | +3.0% | +1.3% |
| 2020-02-13 miss | 1.10 | 1.10 | -0.3% | -0.2% | -1.2% | -2.3% | -18.9% |
| 2019-11-07 miss | 0.58 | 0.55 | -5.2% | -11.2% | -11.3% | +0.7% | +5.6% |
| 2019-08-01 beat | 0.29 | 0.36 | +26.3% | -7.1% | -4.3% | -5.5% | -10.8% |
| 2019-05-02 beat | 0.11 | 0.13 | +13.1% | -10.2% | -11.4% | -2.7% | -10.6% |
| 2019-02-14 beat | 0.96 | 1.03 | +7.8% | -5.3% | -1.5% | +3.3% | +3.9% |
| 2018-11-01 beat | 0.55 | 0.62 | +13.2% | +1.6% | -3.4% | +9.8% | +18.0% |
| 2018-08-02 beat | 0.25 | 0.37 | +49.9% | +2.0% | +5.8% | -1.0% | +4.8% |
| 2018-05-03 beat | 0.13 | 0.18 | +36.3% | +2.7% | +8.8% | +17.5% | +24.2% |
| 2018-02-15 beat | 0.93 | 1.02 | +10.0% | -14.7% | -12.9% | +5.8% | +7.8% |
| 2017-11-02 miss | 0.77 | 0.67 | -13.2% | -22.7% | -35.2% | -1.0% | +7.1% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
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