TOL chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +1.0% | +1.8% | 5.2% | 60% |
| Day 2 | +1.2% | +0.2% | 2.3% | 75% |
| Day 3 | +0.8% | +1.0% | 2.7% | 60% |
| 5-day | +3.0% | +4.7% | 7.5% | 70% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 beat | 2.94 | 2.97 | +0.9% | +1.8% | +4.0% | -0.3% | — |
| 2026-05-19 beat | 2.59 | 2.72 | +5.1% | +3.5% | +9.8% | +1.3% | +11.5% |
| 2026-02-17 beat | 2.11 | 2.19 | +3.9% | -1.2% | -2.3% | -1.8% | -14.6% |
| 2025-12-08 miss | 4.88 | 4.58 | -6.0% | -5.0% | -2.4% | +4.3% | +9.3% |
| 2025-08-19 beat | 3.60 | 3.73 | +3.8% | -0.9% | -0.6% | +5.0% | +6.3% |
| 2025-05-20 beat | 2.86 | 3.50 | +22.4% | +2.3% | -0.5% | +1.0% | +8.1% |
| 2025-02-18 miss | 2.05 | 1.75 | -14.8% | -7.8% | -5.9% | -1.9% | -6.7% |
| 2024-12-09 beat | 4.35 | 4.63 | +6.5% | -5.7% | -6.9% | -8.8% | -13.4% |
| 2024-08-20 beat | 3.31 | 3.64 | +9.9% | +2.6% | +5.6% | +0.8% | +6.7% |
| 2024-05-21 beat | 4.15 | 4.75 | +14.5% | -2.5% | -8.5% | +1.2% | -0.7% |
| 2024-02-20 beat | 1.77 | 2.25 | +27.1% | +7.1% | +3.9% | +4.2% | +17.5% |
| 2023-12-05 beat | 3.72 | 4.11 | +10.5% | +2.7% | +1.9% | +8.5% | +14.9% |
| 2023-08-22 beat | 2.87 | 3.76 | +30.7% | +2.4% | +3.9% | +3.5% | -6.1% |
| 2023-05-23 beat | 1.92 | 2.93 | +52.8% | +1.2% | +2.1% | +5.5% | +16.6% |
| 2023-02-21 beat | 1.39 | 1.70 | +22.7% | +2.5% | +3.0% | +2.6% | +1.5% |
| 2022-12-06 beat | 3.94 | 5.63 | +43.1% | +3.1% | +7.7% | +2.6% | +7.9% |
| 2022-08-23 beat | 2.29 | 2.35 | +2.4% | -3.2% | +1.3% | -5.3% | -8.2% |
| 2022-05-24 beat | 1.62 | 1.85 | +14.3% | +0.5% | +8.0% | +5.3% | -5.1% |
| 2022-02-22 beat | 1.15 | 1.24 | +7.9% | -0.9% | -6.4% | +12.2% | +1.2% |
| 2021-12-07 beat | 2.50 | 3.02 | +20.8% | +0.1% | +1.7% | -1.8% | -9.5% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.