TOL chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.8% | -1.4% | 5.8% | 30% |
| Day 2 | -0.1% | +0.1% | 1.8% | 70% |
| Day 3 | +1.1% | +1.0% | 3.0% | 70% |
| 5-day | -0.6% | +1.1% | 7.9% | 60% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 beat | 2.94 | 2.97 | +0.9% | +1.8% | +4.0% | -0.3% | — |
| 2026-05-19 beat | 2.59 | 2.72 | +5.1% | +3.5% | +9.8% | +1.3% | +11.5% |
| 2026-02-17 beat | 2.11 | 2.19 | +3.9% | -1.2% | -2.3% | -1.8% | -14.6% |
| 2025-12-08 miss | 4.88 | 4.58 | -6.0% | -5.0% | -2.4% | +4.3% | +9.3% |
| 2025-08-19 beat | 3.60 | 3.73 | +3.8% | -0.9% | -0.6% | +5.0% | +6.3% |
| 2025-05-20 beat | 2.86 | 3.50 | +22.4% | +2.3% | -0.5% | +1.0% | +8.1% |
| 2025-02-18 miss | 2.05 | 1.75 | -14.8% | -7.8% | -5.9% | -1.9% | -6.7% |
| 2024-12-09 beat | 4.35 | 4.63 | +6.5% | -5.7% | -6.9% | -8.8% | -13.4% |
| 2024-08-20 beat | 3.31 | 3.64 | +9.9% | +2.6% | +5.6% | +0.8% | +6.7% |
| 2024-05-21 beat | 4.15 | 4.75 | +14.5% | -2.5% | -8.5% | +1.2% | -0.7% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.