TOL chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.4% | -0.6% | 5.7% | 45% |
| Day 2 | +0.1% | +0.2% | 2.3% | 60% |
| Day 3 | +0.1% | -0.1% | 2.1% | 48% |
| 5-day | -0.1% | -0.6% | 6.5% | 47% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 beat | 2.94 | 2.97 | +0.9% | +1.8% | +4.0% | -0.3% | — |
| 2026-05-19 beat | 2.59 | 2.72 | +5.1% | +3.5% | +9.8% | +1.3% | +11.5% |
| 2026-02-17 beat | 2.11 | 2.19 | +3.9% | -1.2% | -2.3% | -1.8% | -14.6% |
| 2025-12-08 miss | 4.88 | 4.58 | -6.0% | -5.0% | -2.4% | +4.3% | +9.3% |
| 2025-08-19 beat | 3.60 | 3.73 | +3.8% | -0.9% | -0.6% | +5.0% | +6.3% |
| 2025-05-20 beat | 2.86 | 3.50 | +22.4% | +2.3% | -0.5% | +1.0% | +8.1% |
| 2025-02-18 miss | 2.05 | 1.75 | -14.8% | -7.8% | -5.9% | -1.9% | -6.7% |
| 2024-12-09 beat | 4.35 | 4.63 | +6.5% | -5.7% | -6.9% | -8.8% | -13.4% |
| 2024-08-20 beat | 3.31 | 3.64 | +9.9% | +2.6% | +5.6% | +0.8% | +6.7% |
| 2024-05-21 beat | 4.15 | 4.75 | +14.5% | -2.5% | -8.5% | +1.2% | -0.7% |
| 2024-02-20 beat | 1.77 | 2.25 | +27.1% | +7.1% | +3.9% | +4.2% | +17.5% |
| 2023-12-05 beat | 3.72 | 4.11 | +10.5% | +2.7% | +1.9% | +8.5% | +14.9% |
| 2023-08-22 beat | 2.87 | 3.76 | +30.7% | +2.4% | +3.9% | +3.5% | -6.1% |
| 2023-05-23 beat | 1.92 | 2.93 | +52.8% | +1.2% | +2.1% | +5.5% | +16.6% |
| 2023-02-21 beat | 1.39 | 1.70 | +22.7% | +2.5% | +3.0% | +2.6% | +1.5% |
| 2022-12-06 beat | 3.94 | 5.63 | +43.1% | +3.1% | +7.7% | +2.6% | +7.9% |
| 2022-08-23 beat | 2.29 | 2.35 | +2.4% | -3.2% | +1.3% | -5.3% | -8.2% |
| 2022-05-24 beat | 1.62 | 1.85 | +14.3% | +0.5% | +8.0% | +5.3% | -5.1% |
| 2022-02-22 beat | 1.15 | 1.24 | +7.9% | -0.9% | -6.4% | +12.2% | +1.2% |
| 2021-12-07 beat | 2.50 | 3.02 | +20.8% | +0.1% | +1.7% | -1.8% | -9.5% |
| 2021-08-24 beat | 1.54 | 1.87 | +21.4% | +0.5% | +4.3% | +1.3% | -5.8% |
| 2021-05-25 beat | 0.81 | 1.01 | +23.9% | +0.6% | +3.8% | -3.5% | -10.3% |
| 2021-02-23 beat | 0.45 | 0.76 | +67.0% | -3.2% | +3.2% | -5.9% | +0.5% |
| 2020-12-07 beat | 1.23 | 1.55 | +25.7% | -4.9% | -7.9% | -0.7% | -5.2% |
| 2020-08-25 beat | 0.67 | 0.90 | +33.8% | +1.5% | -2.1% | -3.4% | +6.2% |
| 2020-05-27 beat | 0.41 | 0.59 | +45.2% | +6.2% | -2.3% | +6.8% | -9.0% |
| 2020-02-25 miss | 0.46 | 0.41 | -10.7% | -10.6% | -14.6% | +7.2% | -41.5% |
| 2019-12-09 beat | 1.30 | 1.41 | +8.4% | -2.3% | -4.9% | +0.5% | +4.9% |
| 2019-08-20 beat | 0.81 | 1.00 | +22.9% | -3.3% | -4.5% | +1.3% | +10.6% |
| 2019-05-21 beat | 0.75 | 0.87 | +16.8% | -4.5% | -4.6% | -3.1% | -0.4% |
| 2019-02-26 beat | 0.61 | 0.76 | +24.1% | +0.5% | -2.5% | -4.2% | +0.2% |
| 2018-12-04 beat | 1.84 | 2.11 | +14.7% | -7.1% | -1.6% | -0.2% | +7.1% |
| 2018-08-21 beat | 1.03 | 1.32 | +28.2% | +10.0% | +13.8% | -6.1% | -9.3% |
| 2018-05-22 beat | 0.76 | 0.79 | +2.9% | -4.0% | -9.6% | +1.1% | -5.2% |
| 2018-02-27 beat | 0.54 | 0.66 | +21.1% | +2.0% | -5.1% | -0.1% | -5.4% |
| 2017-12-05 miss | 1.20 | 1.17 | -2.1% | -9.2% | -7.4% | +0.3% | +9.1% |
| 2017-08-22 beat | 0.68 | 0.70 | +2.7% | -1.2% | -2.6% | +1.6% | +6.9% |
| 2017-05-23 beat | 0.63 | 0.73 | +15.5% | +2.2% | -0.7% | -2.3% | +2.9% |
| 2017-02-22 beat | 0.35 | 0.42 | +19.4% | +7.2% | +6.1% | +2.9% | +5.6% |
| 2016-12-06 beat | 0.99 | 1.16 | +17.3% | +4.5% | +4.8% | +0.7% | -2.2% |
| 2016-08-23 beat | 0.61 | 0.62 | +2.0% | +1.7% | +8.8% | -2.1% | -8.4% |
| 2016-05-24 beat | 0.46 | 0.53 | +13.9% | +4.4% | +8.7% | -1.0% | -6.3% |
| 2016-02-23 beat | 0.40 | 0.41 | +2.5% | +0.8% | +3.8% | +5.3% | +5.6% |
| 2015-12-08 beat | 0.83 | 0.84 | +1.2% | -5.3% | -7.0% | -3.7% | -14.6% |
| 2015-08-25 miss | 0.49 | 0.36 | -27.3% | +1.3% | -7.8% | +2.8% | +1.5% |
| 2015-05-27 beat | 0.35 | 0.42 | +21.2% | +0.1% | -2.2% | +1.5% | +5.9% |
| 2015-02-24 beat | 0.29 | 0.45 | +55.8% | +4.5% | +3.9% | -2.2% | -0.6% |
| 2014-12-10 beat | 0.73 | 0.89 | +22.4% | -0.7% | -7.8% | -0.6% | +9.2% |
| 2014-09-03 beat | 0.46 | 0.53 | +15.1% | +0.4% | -4.7% | -0.3% | -8.6% |
| 2014-05-28 beat | 0.26 | 0.35 | +34.4% | +3.5% | +2.1% | -1.1% | +0.2% |
| 2014-02-25 beat | 0.19 | 0.25 | +35.1% | -1.4% | -0.2% | +3.3% | -8.3% |
| 2013-12-10 beat | 0.44 | 0.52 | +17.7% | +2.7% | -0.7% | +0.2% | +10.2% |
| 2013-08-21 beat | 0.26 | 0.26 | +0.8% | +0.3% | +0.0% | -3.2% | +4.4% |
| 2013-05-22 beat | 0.07 | 0.09 | +30.0% | +4.4% | +2.9% | -7.2% | -14.5% |
| 2013-02-20 miss | 0.11 | 0.03 | -76.0% | -2.8% | -9.1% | +3.9% | +6.2% |
| 2012-12-04 miss | 0.24 | 0.07 | -71.4% | +4.0% | -1.8% | -4.7% | +5.6% |
| 2012-08-22 beat | 0.18 | 0.25 | +41.9% | +4.3% | +3.8% | -1.3% | +10.4% |
| 2012-05-23 beat | 0.04 | 0.10 | +141.8% | +0.9% | +2.7% | -1.7% | -6.2% |
| 2012-02-22 miss | 0.04 | — | -100.0% | -3.3% | -5.1% | +4.4% | +5.9% |
| 2011-12-06 beat | 0.06 | 0.20 | +231.2% | +1.1% | +2.7% | -7.6% | +2.0% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.