TSLA chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.2% | -3.4% | 9.5% | 40% |
| Day 2 | +0.5% | +0.5% | 4.3% | 60% |
| Day 3 | +2.5% | +0.3% | 5.7% | 50% |
| 5-day | +1.5% | -3.3% | 14.2% | 37% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 miss | 0.54 | 0.33 | -39.1% | -8.8% | -14.5% | -3.4% | +13.5% |
| 2026-04-22 beat | 0.35 | 0.41 | +17.1% | -3.2% | -3.6% | +2.1% | +14.0% |
| 2026-01-28 beat | 0.45 | 0.50 | +11.0% | +1.5% | -3.5% | -4.6% | -3.2% |
| 2025-10-22 miss | 0.56 | 0.50 | -10.5% | -4.3% | +2.3% | -2.0% | -12.9% |
| 2025-07-23 miss | 0.40 | 0.40 | -1.1% | -6.8% | -8.2% | +1.0% | +11.4% |
| 2025-04-22 miss | 0.41 | 0.27 | -34.9% | +7.1% | +5.4% | +12.5% | +36.0% |
| 2025-01-29 miss | 0.77 | 0.73 | -5.1% | +5.6% | +2.9% | -6.5% | -28.9% |
| 2024-10-23 beat | 0.60 | 0.72 | +20.5% | +14.5% | +21.9% | -4.1% | +35.4% |
| 2024-07-23 miss | 0.62 | 0.52 | -16.1% | -8.5% | -12.3% | +7.4% | -2.5% |
| 2024-04-23 miss | 0.49 | 0.45 | -8.1% | +12.6% | +12.1% | +11.0% | +7.2% |
| 2024-01-24 miss | 0.74 | 0.71 | -3.5% | -8.7% | -12.1% | +3.4% | +9.2% |
| 2023-10-18 miss | 0.73 | 0.66 | -9.8% | -6.9% | -9.3% | -6.5% | +6.4% |
| 2023-07-19 beat | 0.82 | 0.91 | +11.1% | -4.0% | -9.7% | -2.7% | -18.0% |
| 2023-04-19 miss | 0.85 | 0.85 | -0.4% | -8.0% | -9.7% | -1.7% | +10.5% |
| 2023-01-25 beat | 1.11 | 1.19 | +7.2% | +10.8% | +11.0% | +17.5% | +29.6% |
| 2022-10-19 beat | 1.00 | 1.05 | +5.2% | -6.2% | -6.6% | +8.6% | -13.1% |
| 2022-07-20 beat | 0.60 | 0.76 | +26.9% | +3.1% | +9.8% | +3.4% | +9.2% |
| 2022-04-20 beat | 0.75 | 1.07 | +42.3% | +10.0% | +3.2% | -13.0% | -34.2% |
| 2022-01-26 beat | 0.79 | 0.85 | +6.9% | -0.4% | -11.6% | +7.5% | +5.0% |
| 2021-10-20 beat | 0.54 | 0.62 | +15.2% | -1.1% | +3.3% | +20.5% | +27.2% |
| 2021-07-26 beat | 0.32 | 0.48 | +49.9% | +0.9% | -2.0% | +10.1% | +10.3% |
| 2021-04-26 beat | 0.26 | 0.31 | +19.4% | -2.7% | -4.5% | -4.4% | -12.1% |
| 2021-01-27 miss | 0.35 | 0.27 | -23.9% | -5.1% | -3.3% | +1.7% | -14.0% |
| 2020-10-21 beat | 0.20 | 0.25 | +25.8% | +4.6% | +0.7% | -3.5% | +15.0% |
| 2020-07-22 beat | -0.01 | 0.15 | +1460.8% | +5.4% | -5.0% | -1.7% | +35.5% |
| 2020-04-29 beat | -0.01 | 0.08 | +650.3% | +6.8% | -2.3% | -0.2% | +14.9% |
| 2020-01-29 beat | 0.12 | 0.14 | +17.8% | +8.9% | +10.3% | +16.9% | +16.0% |
| 2019-10-23 beat | -0.02 | 0.12 | +903.1% | +17.2% | +17.7% | +5.1% | +11.1% |
| 2019-07-24 miss | -0.03 | -0.07 | -182.3% | -11.8% | -13.6% | +2.2% | -7.6% |
| 2019-04-24 miss | -0.06 | -0.19 | -209.6% | -1.4% | -4.3% | -1.4% | -23.0% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.