ULTA chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.1% | -0.3% | 9.4% | 47% |
| Day 2 | -0.9% | -0.6% | 4.7% | 33% |
| Day 3 | -0.3% | -0.4% | 2.1% | 40% |
| 5-day | -0.6% | +1.1% | 10.7% | 53% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 beat | 6.20 | 6.55 | +5.6% | +0.4% | -4.2% | +9.0% | — |
| 2026-06-02 beat | 6.89 | 7.74 | +12.3% | -3.3% | -4.8% | -0.1% | -4.0% |
| 2026-03-12 miss | 8.03 | 8.01 | -0.2% | -9.4% | -14.2% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| 2025-12-04 beat | 4.61 | 5.14 | +11.5% | +8.4% | +12.7% | +0.0% | +9.0% |
| 2025-08-28 beat | 5.10 | 5.78 | +13.2% | -0.7% | -7.1% | +5.5% | +11.0% |
| 2025-05-29 beat | 5.80 | 6.70 | +15.5% | +11.0% | +11.8% | -1.2% | +0.4% |
| 2025-03-13 beat | 7.14 | 8.46 | +18.4% | +8.8% | +13.7% | -1.9% | +2.5% |
| 2024-12-05 beat | 4.52 | 5.14 | +13.6% | +9.0% | +9.0% | -0.9% | -3.0% |
| 2024-08-29 miss | 5.47 | 5.30 | -3.0% | -6.4% | -4.0% | +8.1% | +7.5% |
| 2024-05-30 beat | 6.28 | 6.47 | +3.0% | +9.2% | +2.5% | -3.2% | -0.5% |
| 2024-03-14 beat | 7.54 | 8.08 | +7.2% | -10.9% | -5.2% | -2.9% | -20.9% |
| 2023-11-30 beat | 4.97 | 5.07 | +1.9% | +11.6% | +10.8% | +2.1% | +0.4% |
| 2023-08-24 beat | 5.85 | 6.02 | +2.9% | +0.6% | -3.7% | +2.2% | -4.3% |
| 2023-05-25 beat | 6.83 | 6.88 | +0.7% | -10.1% | -13.4% | +0.2% | +9.9% |
| 2023-03-09 beat | 5.60 | 6.68 | +19.2% | +0.4% | +0.2% | -2.8% | +1.1% |
| 2022-12-01 beat | 4.15 | 5.34 | +28.6% | -1.2% | -0.3% | +0.1% | +2.6% |
| 2022-08-25 beat | 4.99 | 5.70 | +14.3% | +2.5% | -1.9% | +2.8% | -4.2% |
| 2022-05-26 beat | 4.48 | 6.30 | +40.7% | +10.5% | +12.5% | -2.7% | -7.9% |
| 2022-03-10 beat | 4.54 | 5.41 | +19.0% | +1.5% | -2.9% | +6.2% | +9.6% |
| 2021-12-02 beat | 2.46 | 3.94 | +60.3% | +4.9% | -1.3% | +6.5% | +10.5% |
| 2021-08-25 beat | 2.56 | 4.56 | +78.1% | +5.4% | -0.3% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 2021-05-27 beat | 1.97 | 4.10 | +108.5% | +4.5% | +5.2% | -3.6% | -0.5% |
| 2021-03-11 beat | 2.37 | 3.41 | +43.8% | -8.7% | -8.4% | +1.2% | +4.4% |
| 2020-12-03 miss | 1.56 | 1.32 | -15.3% | -3.2% | -3.5% | -5.1% | +4.2% |
| 2020-08-27 beat | 0.15 | 0.73 | +383.9% | +13.4% | +5.8% | +1.5% | -6.0% |
| 2020-05-28 miss | 0.67 | -1.13 | -267.2% | -1.1% | +0.3% | +3.3% | -18.6% |
| 2020-03-12 beat | 3.73 | 3.89 | +4.2% | +14.4% | +4.3% | -28.5% | -1.0% |
| 2019-12-05 beat | 2.13 | 2.25 | +5.7% | +8.8% | +11.1% | -3.3% | -1.6% |
| 2019-08-29 miss | 2.80 | 2.76 | -1.4% | -25.1% | -29.6% | -4.9% | +11.9% |
| 2019-05-30 beat | 3.07 | 3.26 | +6.3% | -4.0% | +1.5% | +1.4% | +2.1% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.