UPS chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -3.2% | -2.2% | 7.6% | 40% |
| Day 2 | -0.8% | -0.8% | 2.0% | 30% |
| Day 3 | -0.4% | -0.9% | 1.7% | 40% |
| 5-day | -4.5% | -3.4% | 7.7% | 40% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 beat | 1.66 | 1.76 | +5.8% | -3.9% | -6.6% | +3.4% | +0.1% |
| 2026-04-28 beat | 1.02 | 1.07 | +4.8% | -3.9% | -4.0% | -5.6% | +2.6% |
| 2026-01-27 beat | 2.20 | 2.38 | +8.1% | -0.3% | +0.2% | +4.3% | +8.8% |
| 2025-10-28 beat | 1.30 | 1.74 | +33.9% | +10.3% | +8.0% | -3.2% | -0.7% |
| 2025-07-29 miss | 1.57 | 1.55 | -1.0% | -3.3% | -10.6% | -4.5% | -3.3% |
| 2025-04-29 beat | 1.38 | 1.49 | +7.9% | -1.1% | -0.4% | -3.0% | +1.4% |
| 2025-01-30 beat | 2.53 | 2.75 | +8.6% | -12.3% | -14.1% | -1.2% | +3.8% |
| 2024-10-24 beat | 1.62 | 1.76 | +8.4% | +10.3% | +5.3% | -3.1% | -2.6% |
| 2024-07-23 miss | 1.99 | 1.79 | -10.1% | -10.4% | -12.1% | +1.1% | +0.2% |
| 2024-04-23 beat | 1.34 | 1.43 | +6.7% | +0.4% | +2.4% | -0.9% | -3.4% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.