TKModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
-0.1%
Next 1 week
+1.6%
Next 1 month
+3.8%
Seasonality
Bullish window historically
Next 30 days (to Nov 28): +3.3% median,
65% of the last 52 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Deeply overbought — RSI(2) at 92
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is -0.03%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β 1.40 +3.7% · Seasonal tilt +0.1%
$87M/day volume
34% volatility
+49% 1-year
-22% from ATH
52-week range · 57% of the way up · -22% from the high
$73.62$146.37
Congressional trades in TKR Full tracker →
3 members · 3 buys / 2 sells · $6K–$90K disclosed · latest filing Aug 13, 2025.
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| EXCHANGE | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K |
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2026-11-04 (Wednesday, before open, in 6 days) · EPS est. 1.48.
1-day std dev
5.8%
Finished up
57%
Biggest pop
+9.8%
Biggest drop
-16.3%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 60 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | beat | 1.62 | 1.83 | +12.9% | -7.4% | -6.9% | -9.3% |
| 2026-05-06 | beat | 1.50 | 1.67 | +11.2% | +8.3% | +9.2% | +5.6% |
| 2026-02-04 | beat | 1.09 | 1.14 | +4.9% | -1.1% | +3.0% | +13.2% |
| 2025-10-29 | beat | 1.24 | 1.37 | +10.1% | +7.5% | +2.6% | +1.6% |
| 2025-07-30 | beat | 1.36 | 1.42 | +4.3% | -4.9% | -7.7% | -9.2% |
| 2025-04-30 | miss | 1.42 | 1.40 | -1.5% | -0.9% | -1.6% | +1.3% |
| 2025-02-05 | beat | 0.99 | 1.16 | +17.2% | -2.4% | +3.5% | +4.0% |
| 2024-11-05 | miss | 1.38 | 1.23 | -10.6% | -6.4% | -12.9% | -10.5% |
| 2024-07-31 | beat | 1.61 | 1.63 | +1.4% | +0.7% | +1.6% | -6.5% |
| 2024-04-30 | beat | 1.52 | 1.77 | +16.2% | +5.6% | +2.9% | +3.8% |
| 2024-02-05 | beat | 1.22 | 1.37 | +12.1% | -5.7% | -4.4% | -2.7% |
| 2023-11-01 | miss | 1.60 | 1.55 | -2.9% | -3.0% | -0.5% | +2.5% |
| 2023-08-03 | miss | 2.08 | 2.01 | -3.4% | -12.8% | -9.2% | -15.3% |
| 2023-05-03 | beat | 1.89 | 2.09 | +10.6% | +3.1% | -0.7% | -4.6% |
| 2023-02-06 | beat | 1.09 | 1.22 | +11.8% | -2.8% | -4.2% | -1.6% |
| 2022-10-26 | beat | 1.34 | 1.52 | +13.8% | +0.0% | -0.8% | +1.0% |
| 2022-07-28 | beat | 1.32 | 1.67 | +26.1% | +3.1% | +1.9% | +3.9% |
| 2022-05-02 | beat | 1.16 | 1.61 | +38.8% | +3.2% | +2.7% | +4.7% |
| 2022-02-03 | miss | 0.91 | 0.78 | -14.0% | -2.8% | +0.3% | -1.4% |
| 2021-11-01 | beat | 1.16 | 1.18 | +2.0% | +0.2% | +2.1% | +4.8% |
| 2021-08-02 | miss | 1.44 | 1.37 | -4.8% | -5.9% | -6.0% | -5.6% |
| 2021-04-28 | beat | 1.20 | 1.38 | +14.9% | +3.5% | +3.6% | +6.7% |
| 2021-02-04 | miss | 0.93 | 0.84 | -9.2% | -4.4% | -8.4% | -7.3% |
| 2020-10-29 | beat | 0.90 | 1.13 | +25.4% | -1.3% | +2.8% | +11.8% |
| 2020-08-03 | beat | 0.32 | 1.02 | +215.1% | +8.9% | +9.1% | +18.9% |
| 2020-05-01 | beat | 1.09 | 1.11 | +1.6% | +2.0% | -4.4% | +3.5% |
| 2020-02-05 | miss | 0.96 | 0.84 | -12.1% | +0.4% | +1.9% | -1.3% |
| 2019-10-30 | miss | 1.18 | 1.14 | -3.5% | -1.3% | +0.1% | +9.2% |
| 2019-07-31 | miss | 1.44 | 1.27 | -11.8% | -4.5% | -5.7% | -12.3% |
| 2019-05-01 | beat | 1.22 | 1.35 | +10.5% | +4.3% | +8.0% | +4.3% |
| 2019-02-07 | miss | 1.03 | 1.00 | -2.9% | -1.3% | -3.4% | -2.0% |
| 2018-10-29 | beat | 1.06 | 1.06 | +0.4% | -1.1% | +2.3% | +10.0% |
| 2018-07-31 | beat | 1.07 | 1.11 | +4.2% | +4.3% | +7.1% | +5.1% |
| 2018-05-01 | beat | 0.84 | 1.01 | +20.7% | +0.5% | +3.9% | +12.6% |
| 2018-02-07 | beat | 0.68 | 0.68 | +0.2% | -1.8% | -5.4% | -6.8% |
| 2017-10-25 | beat | 0.68 | 0.71 | +4.7% | +3.0% | -4.8% | -9.7% |
| 2017-07-26 | beat | 0.67 | 0.68 | +1.2% | -4.8% | -7.2% | -9.0% |
| 2017-04-26 | beat | 0.43 | 0.55 | +28.4% | +4.3% | +2.7% | -1.0% |
| 2017-02-09 | beat | 0.45 | 0.47 | +4.2% | +1.0% | +0.7% | +1.2% |
| 2016-10-27 | beat | 0.46 | 0.49 | +5.7% | -0.6% | -5.0% | -8.4% |
| 2016-07-28 | beat | 0.50 | 0.55 | +9.0% | -2.7% | +2.9% | +2.9% |
| 2016-04-27 | beat | 0.43 | 0.46 | +7.0% | +0.2% | -1.9% | -8.2% |
| 2016-02-03 | beat | 0.43 | 0.59 | +36.6% | +3.6% | +9.8% | +10.6% |
| 2015-10-28 | beat | 0.54 | 0.55 | +2.2% | +1.2% | +6.3% | +12.1% |
| 2015-07-30 | miss | 0.57 | 0.57 | -0.9% | -6.0% | +1.3% | -0.3% |
| 2015-04-30 | miss | 0.56 | 0.50 | -10.7% | -3.7% | -4.0% | -3.7% |
| 2015-01-29 | beat | 0.61 | 0.65 | +7.1% | -1.8% | -5.1% | -1.0% |
| 2014-10-28 | beat | 0.66 | 0.77 | +17.1% | +3.7% | +1.1% | +3.2% |
| 2014-07-31 | miss | 0.65 | 0.65 | -0.6% | -4.5% | -4.7% | -3.3% |
| 2014-04-24 | beat | 0.80 | 0.88 | +9.5% | +2.5% | +6.5% | +5.8% |
| 2014-01-30 | beat | 0.73 | 0.78 | +7.3% | +3.3% | +5.7% | +2.2% |
| 2013-10-24 | miss | 0.88 | 0.56 | -36.1% | -7.0% | -12.8% | -12.2% |
| 2013-07-25 | miss | 0.97 | 0.93 | -4.1% | -3.3% | -4.9% | +0.7% |
| 2013-04-24 | beat | 0.80 | 0.80 | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | -1.7% |
| 2013-01-24 | beat | 0.62 | 0.80 | +28.8% | +0.9% | +1.7% | +4.1% |
| 2012-10-25 | miss | 1.03 | 0.91 | -11.3% | -0.2% | +6.5% | +11.0% |
| 2012-07-26 | miss | 1.49 | 1.34 | -9.9% | -6.1% | -16.3% | -12.7% |
| 2012-04-24 | beat | 1.29 | 1.58 | +22.3% | +8.0% | +7.3% | +11.1% |
| 2012-01-26 | beat | 1.07 | 1.15 | +7.6% | -1.4% | +2.9% | +9.1% |
| 2011-10-27 | beat | 1.10 | 1.13 | +3.0% | +6.1% | +6.3% | +6.1% |
Not investment advice.
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