AAL chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.7% | +0.6% | 6.0% | 50% |
| Day 2 | +1.9% | +0.9% | 3.2% | 70% |
| Day 3 | +0.3% | +0.7% | 2.3% | 70% |
| 5-day | +0.0% | +0.8% | 6.0% | 50% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 beat | 0.05 | 0.15 | +227.6% | -5.4% | -8.3% | +13.8% | +1.9% |
| 2026-04-23 beat | -0.46 | -0.40 | +13.0% | +2.1% | +2.4% | -0.6% | +17.6% |
| 2026-01-27 miss | 0.35 | 0.16 | -54.6% | +0.1% | -7.0% | +3.4% | +2.9% |
| 2025-10-23 beat | -0.28 | -0.17 | +38.2% | +5.4% | +5.6% | +0.1% | +0.8% |
| 2025-07-24 beat | 0.77 | 0.95 | +22.7% | -7.0% | -9.6% | +0.3% | +18.2% |
| 2025-04-24 beat | -0.67 | -0.59 | +12.1% | +1.0% | +3.1% | +4.4% | +16.4% |
| 2025-01-23 beat | 0.66 | 0.86 | +30.1% | -7.3% | -8.7% | -0.8% | -10.1% |
| 2024-10-24 beat | 0.17 | 0.30 | +80.8% | +2.7% | -0.4% | +4.9% | +12.5% |
| 2024-07-25 beat | 1.05 | 1.09 | +4.0% | -2.5% | +4.2% | -4.3% | -2.0% |
| 2024-04-25 miss | -0.29 | -0.34 | -16.8% | +2.1% | +1.5% | -1.9% | -2.1% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.