AAL chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.9% | +1.0% | 5.6% | 55% |
| Day 2 | +0.6% | -0.2% | 3.3% | 45% |
| Day 3 | +0.1% | +0.6% | 2.1% | 65% |
| 5-day | -0.9% | -0.3% | 5.9% | 40% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 beat | 0.05 | 0.15 | +227.6% | -5.4% | -8.3% | +13.8% | +1.9% |
| 2026-04-23 beat | -0.46 | -0.40 | +13.0% | +2.1% | +2.4% | -0.6% | +17.6% |
| 2026-01-27 miss | 0.35 | 0.16 | -54.6% | +0.1% | -7.0% | +3.4% | +2.9% |
| 2025-10-23 beat | -0.28 | -0.17 | +38.2% | +5.4% | +5.6% | +0.1% | +0.8% |
| 2025-07-24 beat | 0.77 | 0.95 | +22.7% | -7.0% | -9.6% | +0.3% | +18.2% |
| 2025-04-24 beat | -0.67 | -0.59 | +12.1% | +1.0% | +3.1% | +4.4% | +16.4% |
| 2025-01-23 beat | 0.66 | 0.86 | +30.1% | -7.3% | -8.7% | -0.8% | -10.1% |
| 2024-10-24 beat | 0.17 | 0.30 | +80.8% | +2.7% | -0.4% | +4.9% | +12.5% |
| 2024-07-25 beat | 1.05 | 1.09 | +4.0% | -2.5% | +4.2% | -4.3% | -2.0% |
| 2024-04-25 miss | -0.29 | -0.34 | -16.8% | +2.1% | +1.5% | -1.9% | -2.1% |
| 2024-01-25 beat | 0.08 | 0.29 | +265.6% | +4.7% | +10.3% | -6.6% | -0.5% |
| 2023-10-19 beat | 0.25 | 0.38 | +50.5% | -0.1% | +0.8% | -2.6% | +7.3% |
| 2023-07-20 beat | 1.59 | 1.92 | +20.4% | -2.4% | -6.2% | -5.0% | -13.8% |
| 2023-04-27 beat | 0.03 | 0.05 | +80.7% | +1.8% | +1.1% | +4.9% | +11.4% |
| 2023-01-26 beat | 1.08 | 1.17 | +8.6% | +1.7% | +2.2% | +2.7% | -5.9% |
| 2022-10-20 beat | 0.56 | 0.69 | +22.5% | -0.3% | -3.8% | +3.8% | +4.4% |
| 2022-07-21 beat | 0.74 | 0.76 | +2.4% | -3.6% | -7.4% | -2.3% | +0.6% |
| 2022-04-21 beat | -2.41 | -2.32 | +3.5% | +9.1% | +3.8% | -3.9% | -19.6% |
| 2022-01-20 beat | -1.48 | -1.42 | +4.0% | +1.8% | -3.2% | -5.8% | +6.6% |
| 2021-10-21 beat | -1.03 | -0.95 | +7.8% | +0.5% | +1.9% | -3.5% | -3.1% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.