ADM chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.4% | +0.2% | 3.3% | 50% |
| Day 2 | -1.6% | -1.2% | 2.0% | 10% |
| Day 3 | -0.4% | -0.5% | 1.6% | 30% |
| 5-day | +0.8% | +1.7% | 5.6% | 70% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 beat | 1.44 | 1.84 | +28.0% | +0.0% | +2.3% | +0.7% | +6.9% |
| 2026-05-05 beat | 0.66 | 0.71 | +7.8% | +0.0% | +3.8% | +1.9% | +5.3% |
| 2026-02-03 beat | 0.80 | 0.87 | +9.2% | -8.3% | -1.0% | +1.8% | -1.3% |
| 2025-11-04 beat | 0.85 | 0.92 | +7.9% | -6.6% | +0.0% | -4.1% | -1.3% |
| 2025-08-05 beat | 0.80 | 0.93 | +16.8% | +0.3% | +6.0% | +1.6% | +7.5% |
| 2025-05-06 beat | 0.67 | 0.70 | +4.5% | +1.7% | +1.7% | +4.9% | -2.8% |
| 2025-02-04 miss | 1.15 | 1.14 | -0.8% | -3.0% | -5.1% | -2.2% | +1.2% |
| 2024-11-18 miss | 1.09 | 1.09 | -0.0% | -0.2% | +0.5% | +1.4% | -6.8% |
| 2024-07-30 miss | 1.24 | 1.03 | -16.8% | -3.6% | -1.3% | -7.3% | -2.5% |
| 2024-04-30 beat | 1.37 | 1.46 | +6.7% | +0.1% | -3.3% | +5.0% | +2.5% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-14); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.