ADM chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.4% | +0.1% | 3.9% | 50% |
| Day 2 | +0.2% | -0.1% | 2.5% | 48% |
| Day 3 | -0.0% | -0.1% | 1.9% | 47% |
| 5-day | +0.5% | +0.9% | 5.9% | 57% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 beat | 1.44 | 1.84 | +28.0% | +0.0% | +2.3% | +0.7% | +6.9% |
| 2026-05-05 beat | 0.66 | 0.71 | +7.8% | +0.0% | +3.8% | +1.9% | +5.3% |
| 2026-02-03 beat | 0.80 | 0.87 | +9.2% | -8.3% | -1.0% | +1.8% | -1.3% |
| 2025-11-04 beat | 0.85 | 0.92 | +7.9% | -6.6% | +0.0% | -4.1% | -1.3% |
| 2025-08-05 beat | 0.80 | 0.93 | +16.8% | +0.3% | +6.0% | +1.6% | +7.5% |
| 2025-05-06 beat | 0.67 | 0.70 | +4.5% | +1.7% | +1.7% | +4.9% | -2.8% |
| 2025-02-04 miss | 1.15 | 1.14 | -0.8% | -3.0% | -5.1% | -2.2% | +1.2% |
| 2024-11-18 miss | 1.09 | 1.09 | -0.0% | -0.2% | +0.5% | +1.4% | -6.8% |
| 2024-07-30 miss | 1.24 | 1.03 | -16.8% | -3.6% | -1.3% | -7.3% | -2.5% |
| 2024-04-30 beat | 1.37 | 1.46 | +6.7% | +0.1% | -3.3% | +5.0% | +2.5% |
| 2024-03-12 miss | 1.43 | 1.36 | -5.0% | +4.0% | +3.9% | +6.9% | +9.6% |
| 2023-10-24 beat | 1.53 | 1.63 | +6.3% | -1.0% | -4.0% | +3.0% | +7.0% |
| 2023-07-25 beat | 1.59 | 1.89 | +19.1% | +0.2% | +3.5% | -1.2% | -5.7% |
| 2023-04-25 beat | 1.78 | 2.09 | +17.4% | -2.8% | -6.1% | -0.5% | -4.0% |
| 2023-01-26 beat | 1.65 | 1.93 | +16.9% | +0.6% | -0.8% | -3.1% | -4.4% |
| 2022-10-25 beat | 1.41 | 1.86 | +31.5% | +1.1% | +2.1% | +7.0% | +6.2% |
| 2022-07-26 beat | 1.72 | 2.15 | +25.0% | +3.5% | +4.4% | +4.9% | +12.3% |
| 2022-04-26 beat | 1.41 | 1.90 | +34.8% | +4.0% | -0.4% | -1.0% | -2.1% |
| 2022-01-25 beat | 1.37 | 1.50 | +9.5% | -1.6% | -0.3% | +10.5% | +10.9% |
| 2021-10-26 beat | 0.89 | 0.97 | +8.9% | +0.0% | -1.9% | -3.0% | +1.5% |
| 2021-07-27 beat | 1.04 | 1.33 | +28.4% | +1.0% | +0.7% | +1.6% | +2.5% |
| 2021-04-27 beat | 1.06 | 1.39 | +31.6% | -0.3% | +3.1% | +5.3% | +7.6% |
| 2021-01-26 beat | 1.09 | 1.21 | +10.6% | +0.0% | -1.7% | -2.4% | +9.9% |
| 2020-10-29 beat | 0.72 | 0.89 | +23.5% | -3.8% | -7.4% | +4.4% | +8.4% |
| 2020-07-29 beat | 0.51 | 0.85 | +67.2% | +0.2% | +1.0% | +0.4% | +3.6% |
| 2020-04-29 beat | 0.56 | 0.64 | +14.8% | +0.0% | -3.3% | -6.4% | +4.7% |
| 2020-01-29 beat | 0.73 | 1.42 | +94.5% | +4.4% | +4.9% | +0.4% | -15.2% |
| 2019-10-31 beat | 0.71 | 0.77 | +8.9% | +1.5% | +3.7% | +3.6% | +3.0% |
| 2019-08-01 miss | 0.65 | 0.60 | -7.7% | +0.1% | +0.2% | -6.9% | -7.5% |
| 2019-04-26 miss | 0.61 | 0.46 | -25.1% | -0.4% | -1.9% | +6.7% | -5.7% |
| 2019-02-05 miss | 0.92 | 0.88 | -4.5% | -3.5% | -5.9% | +1.2% | +0.8% |
| 2018-11-06 beat | 0.83 | 0.92 | +11.1% | -0.2% | -1.6% | +1.5% | -6.1% |
| 2018-07-31 beat | 0.78 | 1.02 | +31.6% | +4.0% | +1.9% | +4.1% | +4.4% |
| 2018-05-01 beat | 0.51 | 0.68 | +34.4% | +0.5% | -0.8% | -2.4% | -2.9% |
| 2018-02-06 beat | 0.71 | 0.82 | +15.9% | -1.0% | +3.4% | -1.6% | +3.1% |
| 2017-10-31 miss | 0.55 | 0.45 | -18.6% | -4.8% | -4.5% | -3.3% | -2.4% |
| 2017-08-01 beat | 0.53 | 0.57 | +8.5% | +1.9% | +2.7% | -2.4% | -3.3% |
| 2017-05-02 miss | 0.62 | 0.60 | -2.5% | -6.0% | -8.9% | +1.7% | +0.4% |
| 2017-02-07 miss | 0.77 | 0.75 | -2.5% | -2.4% | +1.3% | -1.9% | -0.4% |
| 2016-11-01 beat | 0.46 | 0.59 | +29.0% | +4.1% | +7.3% | +2.1% | -5.2% |
| 2016-08-02 miss | 0.45 | 0.41 | -9.3% | -2.7% | -1.8% | +2.1% | +0.7% |
| 2016-05-03 miss | 0.45 | 0.42 | -6.3% | -0.8% | -2.9% | -1.8% | +11.2% |
| 2016-02-02 miss | 0.64 | 0.61 | -4.8% | -5.5% | -8.7% | +3.8% | +13.8% |
| 2015-11-03 miss | 0.69 | 0.60 | -13.6% | -6.4% | -6.8% | -5.8% | -17.5% |
| 2015-08-04 miss | 0.67 | 0.60 | -9.9% | -0.4% | +1.5% | -4.8% | -9.9% |
| 2015-05-05 beat | 0.71 | 0.77 | +8.2% | +0.2% | +0.1% | +3.1% | +2.1% |
| 2015-02-03 beat | 0.96 | 1.00 | +4.3% | -1.7% | +1.2% | -2.4% | -2.6% |
| 2014-11-04 beat | 0.73 | 0.81 | +10.7% | +3.8% | +4.8% | +3.2% | +6.5% |
| 2014-08-05 beat | 0.73 | 0.77 | +5.0% | +3.1% | +3.4% | +2.2% | +3.4% |
| 2014-04-29 miss | 0.74 | 0.64 | -13.8% | -2.8% | -2.6% | -0.2% | +3.3% |
| 2014-02-04 beat | 0.86 | 0.95 | +10.9% | +2.3% | -1.7% | +6.0% | +7.1% |
| 2013-10-29 miss | 0.47 | 0.46 | -2.0% | -1.0% | +2.2% | +3.1% | +1.9% |
| 2013-08-06 beat | 0.44 | 0.46 | +4.6% | -2.6% | +0.1% | +2.0% | -4.5% |
| 2013-05-01 miss | 0.53 | 0.48 | -8.9% | -2.2% | +0.1% | +0.9% | -2.8% |
| 2013-02-05 miss | 0.61 | 0.60 | -1.0% | +2.5% | +3.3% | +4.9% | +10.9% |
| 2012-05-01 beat | 0.60 | 0.78 | +29.1% | +1.7% | +7.1% | -0.1% | -3.5% |
| 2012-01-31 miss | 0.77 | 0.51 | -33.6% | -2.9% | -3.6% | +4.1% | +10.1% |
| 2011-11-01 beat | 0.67 | 0.69 | +3.7% | -4.8% | -4.1% | +7.6% | +8.9% |
| 2011-08-02 miss | 0.83 | 0.58 | -30.2% | -3.9% | -6.2% | -3.1% | -0.4% |
| 2011-05-03 miss | 0.86 | 0.86 | -0.5% | -2.4% | -6.7% | -3.2% | -11.1% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-14); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.