ADM chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.2% | -0.1% | 3.3% | 45% |
| Day 2 | +0.1% | -0.3% | 2.7% | 45% |
| Day 3 | -0.2% | -0.2% | 1.5% | 40% |
| 5-day | +1.6% | +1.7% | 6.2% | 60% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 beat | 1.44 | 1.84 | +28.0% | +0.0% | +2.3% | +0.7% | +6.9% |
| 2026-05-05 beat | 0.66 | 0.71 | +7.8% | +0.0% | +3.8% | +1.9% | +5.3% |
| 2026-02-03 beat | 0.80 | 0.87 | +9.2% | -8.3% | -1.0% | +1.8% | -1.3% |
| 2025-11-04 beat | 0.85 | 0.92 | +7.9% | -6.6% | +0.0% | -4.1% | -1.3% |
| 2025-08-05 beat | 0.80 | 0.93 | +16.8% | +0.3% | +6.0% | +1.6% | +7.5% |
| 2025-05-06 beat | 0.67 | 0.70 | +4.5% | +1.7% | +1.7% | +4.9% | -2.8% |
| 2025-02-04 miss | 1.15 | 1.14 | -0.8% | -3.0% | -5.1% | -2.2% | +1.2% |
| 2024-11-18 miss | 1.09 | 1.09 | -0.0% | -0.2% | +0.5% | +1.4% | -6.8% |
| 2024-07-30 miss | 1.24 | 1.03 | -16.8% | -3.6% | -1.3% | -7.3% | -2.5% |
| 2024-04-30 beat | 1.37 | 1.46 | +6.7% | +0.1% | -3.3% | +5.0% | +2.5% |
| 2024-03-12 miss | 1.43 | 1.36 | -5.0% | +4.0% | +3.9% | +6.9% | +9.6% |
| 2023-10-24 beat | 1.53 | 1.63 | +6.3% | -1.0% | -4.0% | +3.0% | +7.0% |
| 2023-07-25 beat | 1.59 | 1.89 | +19.1% | +0.2% | +3.5% | -1.2% | -5.7% |
| 2023-04-25 beat | 1.78 | 2.09 | +17.4% | -2.8% | -6.1% | -0.5% | -4.0% |
| 2023-01-26 beat | 1.65 | 1.93 | +16.9% | +0.6% | -0.8% | -3.1% | -4.4% |
| 2022-10-25 beat | 1.41 | 1.86 | +31.5% | +1.1% | +2.1% | +7.0% | +6.2% |
| 2022-07-26 beat | 1.72 | 2.15 | +25.0% | +3.5% | +4.4% | +4.9% | +12.3% |
| 2022-04-26 beat | 1.41 | 1.90 | +34.8% | +4.0% | -0.4% | -1.0% | -2.1% |
| 2022-01-25 beat | 1.37 | 1.50 | +9.5% | -1.6% | -0.3% | +10.5% | +10.9% |
| 2021-10-26 beat | 0.89 | 0.97 | +8.9% | +0.0% | -1.9% | -3.0% | +1.5% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.