ADP chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +1.2% | +1.6% | 3.7% | 80% |
| Day 2 | -1.1% | -0.9% | 1.2% | 20% |
| Day 3 | +0.1% | +0.1% | 1.3% | 50% |
| 5-day | +0.2% | +1.4% | 4.7% | 70% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 beat | 2.60 | 2.64 | +1.6% | +0.3% | +3.5% | -1.2% | +4.1% |
| 2026-04-29 beat | 3.30 | 3.37 | +2.3% | +4.3% | +8.0% | -3.7% | +3.2% |
| 2026-01-28 beat | 2.57 | 2.62 | +2.0% | -1.9% | -1.5% | -6.4% | -14.5% |
| 2025-10-29 beat | 2.44 | 2.49 | +1.9% | -3.0% | -6.6% | -0.6% | -2.3% |
| 2025-07-30 beat | 2.23 | 2.26 | +1.5% | -3.0% | +0.7% | -3.0% | -2.2% |
| 2025-04-30 beat | 2.97 | 3.06 | +2.9% | -1.7% | +1.6% | +1.5% | +8.3% |
| 2025-01-29 beat | 2.30 | 2.35 | +2.4% | +2.0% | +0.8% | +2.5% | +4.9% |
| 2024-10-30 beat | 2.21 | 2.33 | +5.3% | -0.6% | +1.7% | +4.2% | +4.8% |
| 2024-07-31 beat | 2.06 | 2.09 | +1.4% | +0.9% | +1.9% | -1.4% | +4.1% |
| 2024-05-01 beat | 2.78 | 2.88 | +3.5% | +3.2% | +2.2% | -1.8% | -1.0% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.