ADP chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.1% | +0.8% | 4.4% | 60% |
| Day 2 | -0.1% | +0.0% | 1.5% | 50% |
| Day 3 | -0.2% | +0.0% | 1.8% | 47% |
| 5-day | +0.4% | +0.8% | 5.4% | 60% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 beat | 2.60 | 2.64 | +1.6% | +0.3% | +3.5% | -1.2% | +4.1% |
| 2026-04-29 beat | 3.30 | 3.37 | +2.3% | +4.3% | +8.0% | -3.7% | +3.2% |
| 2026-01-28 beat | 2.57 | 2.62 | +2.0% | -1.9% | -1.5% | -6.4% | -14.5% |
| 2025-10-29 beat | 2.44 | 2.49 | +1.9% | -3.0% | -6.6% | -0.6% | -2.3% |
| 2025-07-30 beat | 2.23 | 2.26 | +1.5% | -3.0% | +0.7% | -3.0% | -2.2% |
| 2025-04-30 beat | 2.97 | 3.06 | +2.9% | -1.7% | +1.6% | +1.5% | +8.3% |
| 2025-01-29 beat | 2.30 | 2.35 | +2.4% | +2.0% | +0.8% | +2.5% | +4.9% |
| 2024-10-30 beat | 2.21 | 2.33 | +5.3% | -0.6% | +1.7% | +4.2% | +4.8% |
| 2024-07-31 beat | 2.06 | 2.09 | +1.4% | +0.9% | +1.9% | -1.4% | +4.1% |
| 2024-05-01 beat | 2.78 | 2.88 | +3.5% | +3.2% | +2.2% | -1.8% | -1.0% |
| 2024-01-31 beat | 2.10 | 2.13 | +1.4% | +3.3% | +3.0% | +1.8% | +1.6% |
| 2023-10-25 beat | 2.02 | 2.08 | +2.8% | -4.5% | -9.2% | -3.6% | +5.6% |
| 2023-07-26 beat | 1.83 | 1.89 | +3.2% | +1.5% | +5.4% | -2.4% | -1.4% |
| 2023-04-26 beat | 2.45 | 2.52 | +2.7% | -4.0% | -0.4% | +2.4% | -0.2% |
| 2023-01-25 beat | 1.94 | 1.96 | +1.1% | -2.0% | -4.7% | -0.6% | -2.8% |
| 2022-10-26 beat | 1.79 | 1.86 | +3.9% | +3.5% | -1.1% | +1.0% | +12.3% |
| 2022-07-27 beat | 1.47 | 1.50 | +2.4% | +0.9% | +7.4% | +4.4% | +10.3% |
| 2022-04-27 beat | 2.08 | 2.21 | +6.4% | +1.2% | +2.6% | +0.4% | -4.3% |
| 2022-01-26 beat | 1.63 | 1.65 | +1.2% | -5.3% | -9.0% | +5.3% | +3.5% |
| 2021-10-27 beat | 1.49 | 1.65 | +11.0% | +2.0% | +1.4% | +1.7% | +3.5% |
| 2021-07-28 beat | 1.14 | 1.20 | +5.4% | -0.3% | -0.5% | +2.5% | +0.1% |
| 2021-04-28 beat | 1.78 | 1.89 | +5.9% | -2.4% | -4.7% | +3.8% | +5.7% |
| 2021-01-27 beat | 1.29 | 1.52 | +18.1% | -1.1% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +5.0% |
| 2020-10-28 beat | 0.98 | 1.41 | +44.4% | +6.3% | +6.2% | +6.1% | +13.0% |
| 2020-07-29 beat | 0.96 | 1.14 | +18.2% | -4.6% | -6.5% | -1.7% | +2.8% |
| 2020-04-29 beat | 1.89 | 1.92 | +1.5% | +2.6% | +2.0% | -0.9% | +0.4% |
| 2020-01-29 beat | 1.44 | 1.52 | +5.2% | -3.6% | -4.1% | +4.4% | -9.5% |
| 2019-10-30 beat | 1.33 | 1.34 | +0.7% | -2.5% | +0.8% | -2.7% | +4.0% |
| 2019-07-31 beat | 1.13 | 1.14 | +0.7% | +4.2% | +0.9% | -1.2% | +1.8% |
| 2019-05-01 beat | 1.69 | 1.77 | +5.0% | -2.1% | -4.2% | +1.1% | +1.7% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.