ARES chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.2% | -0.1% | 5.0% | 50% |
| Day 2 | +1.1% | +0.1% | 4.0% | 50% |
| Day 3 | +1.9% | +2.0% | 1.8% | 80% |
| 5-day | +2.8% | +2.4% | 6.1% | 70% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 beat | 1.27 | 1.29 | +1.4% | +3.5% | +3.2% | +6.8% | +11.8% |
| 2026-05-01 miss | 1.33 | 1.24 | -6.6% | +2.3% | +1.4% | +6.1% | +7.8% |
| 2026-02-05 miss | 1.69 | 1.45 | -14.0% | -3.8% | -11.2% | +9.9% | -10.7% |
| 2025-11-03 beat | 1.14 | 1.19 | +4.0% | +3.8% | +4.6% | -1.4% | +4.2% |
| 2025-08-01 miss | 1.09 | 1.03 | -5.8% | -3.0% | -1.5% | +3.1% | -1.7% |
| 2025-05-05 beat | 0.94 | 1.09 | +15.9% | -0.4% | +2.3% | +7.3% | +5.1% |
| 2025-02-05 miss | 1.30 | 1.23 | -5.2% | -7.3% | -2.9% | -3.6% | -18.3% |
| 2024-11-01 beat | 0.94 | 0.95 | +0.8% | +1.8% | -3.5% | +5.3% | +8.1% |
| 2024-08-02 beat | 0.98 | 0.99 | +0.6% | -3.7% | -6.6% | +1.6% | +2.0% |
| 2024-05-02 miss | 0.92 | 0.80 | -13.0% | -2.1% | +2.2% | +5.8% | +2.6% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-14); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.