ARES chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.3% | +1.2% | 4.5% | 55% |
| Day 2 | +0.6% | +0.7% | 3.6% | 55% |
| Day 3 | +1.0% | +1.5% | 2.1% | 65% |
| 5-day | +2.4% | +2.0% | 5.4% | 65% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 beat | 1.27 | 1.29 | +1.4% | +3.5% | +3.2% | +6.8% | +11.8% |
| 2026-05-01 miss | 1.33 | 1.24 | -6.6% | +2.3% | +1.4% | +6.1% | +7.8% |
| 2026-02-05 miss | 1.69 | 1.45 | -14.0% | -3.8% | -11.2% | +9.9% | -10.7% |
| 2025-11-03 beat | 1.14 | 1.19 | +4.0% | +3.8% | +4.6% | -1.4% | +4.2% |
| 2025-08-01 miss | 1.09 | 1.03 | -5.8% | -3.0% | -1.5% | +3.1% | -1.7% |
| 2025-05-05 beat | 0.94 | 1.09 | +15.9% | -0.4% | +2.3% | +7.3% | +5.1% |
| 2025-02-05 miss | 1.30 | 1.23 | -5.2% | -7.3% | -2.9% | -3.6% | -18.3% |
| 2024-11-01 beat | 0.94 | 0.95 | +0.8% | +1.8% | -3.5% | +5.3% | +8.1% |
| 2024-08-02 beat | 0.98 | 0.99 | +0.6% | -3.7% | -6.6% | +1.6% | +2.0% |
| 2024-05-02 miss | 0.92 | 0.80 | -13.0% | -2.1% | +2.2% | +5.8% | +2.6% |
| 2024-02-08 beat | 1.10 | 1.21 | +10.4% | +5.6% | +5.2% | -0.3% | -2.2% |
| 2023-10-31 miss | 0.87 | 0.83 | -4.2% | -4.8% | -2.8% | +6.3% | +13.9% |
| 2023-08-01 beat | 0.85 | 0.90 | +5.7% | +0.2% | +3.1% | -2.0% | +0.6% |
| 2023-04-28 miss | 0.81 | 0.71 | -12.2% | -1.5% | +5.0% | -6.4% | -0.3% |
| 2023-02-09 beat | 1.08 | 1.21 | +12.2% | +2.3% | -2.5% | +0.1% | -12.8% |
| 2022-10-27 beat | 0.74 | 0.75 | +1.7% | -0.5% | +2.7% | +3.9% | +4.2% |
| 2022-07-28 beat | 0.69 | 0.74 | +6.9% | +0.4% | +8.0% | +3.7% | +5.3% |
| 2022-04-28 miss | 0.67 | 0.65 | -2.6% | +0.6% | +1.0% | -2.5% | +2.4% |
| 2022-02-11 beat | 0.72 | 0.85 | +18.4% | +2.1% | -0.7% | -3.7% | -10.8% |
| 2021-10-27 miss | 0.64 | 0.62 | -2.6% | -2.4% | -2.0% | +4.6% | -0.8% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.