ARES chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.4% | -0.2% | 3.5% | 48% |
| Day 2 | +0.2% | +0.0% | 2.9% | 48% |
| Day 3 | +0.6% | +0.3% | 1.8% | 60% |
| 5-day | +1.3% | +1.4% | 5.8% | 58% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 beat | 1.27 | 1.29 | +1.4% | +3.5% | +3.2% | +6.8% | +11.8% |
| 2026-05-01 miss | 1.33 | 1.24 | -6.6% | +2.3% | +1.4% | +6.1% | +7.8% |
| 2026-02-05 miss | 1.69 | 1.45 | -14.0% | -3.8% | -11.2% | +9.9% | -10.7% |
| 2025-11-03 beat | 1.14 | 1.19 | +4.0% | +3.8% | +4.6% | -1.4% | +4.2% |
| 2025-08-01 miss | 1.09 | 1.03 | -5.8% | -3.0% | -1.5% | +3.1% | -1.7% |
| 2025-05-05 beat | 0.94 | 1.09 | +15.9% | -0.4% | +2.3% | +7.3% | +5.1% |
| 2025-02-05 miss | 1.30 | 1.23 | -5.2% | -7.3% | -2.9% | -3.6% | -18.3% |
| 2024-11-01 beat | 0.94 | 0.95 | +0.8% | +1.8% | -3.5% | +5.3% | +8.1% |
| 2024-08-02 beat | 0.98 | 0.99 | +0.6% | -3.7% | -6.6% | +1.6% | +2.0% |
| 2024-05-02 miss | 0.92 | 0.80 | -13.0% | -2.1% | +2.2% | +5.8% | +2.6% |
| 2024-02-08 beat | 1.10 | 1.21 | +10.4% | +5.6% | +5.2% | -0.3% | -2.2% |
| 2023-10-31 miss | 0.87 | 0.83 | -4.2% | -4.8% | -2.8% | +6.3% | +13.9% |
| 2023-08-01 beat | 0.85 | 0.90 | +5.7% | +0.2% | +3.1% | -2.0% | +0.6% |
| 2023-04-28 miss | 0.81 | 0.71 | -12.2% | -1.5% | +5.0% | -6.4% | -0.3% |
| 2023-02-09 beat | 1.08 | 1.21 | +12.2% | +2.3% | -2.5% | +0.1% | -12.8% |
| 2022-10-27 beat | 0.74 | 0.75 | +1.7% | -0.5% | +2.7% | +3.9% | +4.2% |
| 2022-07-28 beat | 0.69 | 0.74 | +6.9% | +0.4% | +8.0% | +3.7% | +5.3% |
| 2022-04-28 miss | 0.67 | 0.65 | -2.6% | +0.6% | +1.0% | -2.5% | +2.4% |
| 2022-02-11 beat | 0.72 | 0.85 | +18.4% | +2.1% | -0.7% | -3.7% | -10.8% |
| 2021-10-27 miss | 0.64 | 0.62 | -2.6% | -2.4% | -2.0% | +4.6% | -0.8% |
| 2021-07-29 beat | 0.52 | 0.64 | +23.3% | -0.5% | +2.6% | +4.4% | +6.5% |
| 2021-04-29 miss | 0.51 | 0.46 | -10.4% | +0.1% | -3.3% | -1.0% | +1.7% |
| 2021-02-11 beat | 0.45 | 0.54 | +20.9% | -3.2% | -0.1% | +1.8% | +9.5% |
| 2020-10-28 beat | 0.43 | 0.48 | +11.2% | -1.9% | -2.1% | +3.2% | +7.4% |
| 2020-08-05 beat | 0.38 | 0.39 | +3.5% | +0.2% | +0.4% | -1.3% | -2.8% |
| 2020-05-06 beat | 0.42 | 0.45 | +7.8% | +0.5% | +7.7% | -4.0% | +13.3% |
| 2020-02-13 beat | 0.51 | 0.67 | +32.5% | +0.0% | +1.2% | -2.8% | -33.3% |
| 2019-10-31 miss | 0.37 | 0.34 | -7.5% | -1.8% | -0.5% | +8.7% | +10.0% |
| 2019-07-31 miss | 0.37 | 0.32 | -13.5% | -1.5% | -0.8% | -5.6% | +0.0% |
| 2019-05-02 miss | 0.37 | 0.35 | -6.6% | +0.0% | -0.9% | +3.9% | +7.0% |
| 2019-02-14 beat | 0.33 | 0.41 | +24.8% | +1.2% | +3.0% | +6.2% | +6.7% |
| 2018-11-01 miss | 0.34 | 0.30 | -12.0% | -0.2% | +4.9% | +6.2% | +12.1% |
| 2018-08-02 miss | 0.40 | 0.34 | -15.7% | +3.1% | +1.7% | -1.2% | +0.2% |
| 2018-05-03 beat | 0.36 | 0.37 | +3.0% | +0.7% | -1.3% | -0.7% | -0.9% |
| 2018-02-15 beat | 0.49 | 0.54 | +10.7% | +2.0% | +7.7% | -2.0% | -14.5% |
| 2017-11-03 beat | 0.39 | 0.40 | +2.3% | +2.2% | +0.8% | +0.3% | -2.1% |
| 2017-08-04 beat | 0.67 | 0.69 | +3.2% | +1.4% | -0.3% | -1.6% | -1.6% |
| 2017-05-08 miss | 0.40 | 0.30 | -24.6% | -4.0% | -1.1% | +1.1% | -3.5% |
| 2017-02-24 beat | 0.39 | 0.44 | +14.0% | +0.9% | +0.9% | -15.1% | -21.5% |
| 2016-11-07 beat | 0.40 | 0.46 | +16.1% | +1.0% | -1.0% | +10.1% | +11.1% |
| 2016-08-09 beat | 0.29 | 0.44 | +52.5% | +3.6% | -0.6% | +5.5% | +7.6% |
| 2016-05-10 miss | 0.22 | 0.08 | -64.2% | -1.0% | -0.4% | -3.1% | -2.8% |
| 2016-02-29 miss | 0.31 | 0.20 | -35.6% | +1.0% | -1.5% | +5.7% | +28.1% |
| 2015-11-10 miss | 0.17 | — | -100.0% | -1.7% | -3.0% | -12.4% | -13.7% |
| 2015-08-11 miss | 0.40 | 0.32 | -19.2% | -2.6% | +0.1% | -2.7% | -10.5% |
| 2015-05-12 miss | 0.39 | 0.35 | -10.3% | -1.1% | -0.7% | +3.2% | +7.1% |
| 2015-03-05 miss | 0.36 | 0.27 | -25.9% | -0.6% | -1.7% | -3.8% | -10.6% |
| 2014-11-12 miss | 0.33 | 0.32 | -3.9% | +0.3% | +3.1% | +0.4% | +2.6% |
| 2014-08-13 miss | 0.37 | 0.33 | -9.8% | +0.0% | +1.1% | -1.4% | -2.4% |
| 2014-06-10 beat | 0.33 | 0.34 | +2.5% | -0.3% | -0.7% | -0.6% | +3.3% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.