ASML chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -4.6% | -4.8% | 6.9% | 30% |
| Day 2 | -0.6% | +0.0% | 3.2% | 50% |
| Day 3 | -0.7% | -1.5% | 2.4% | 40% |
| 5-day | -5.5% | -6.4% | 9.2% | 30% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 beat | 6.95 | 7.58 | +9.1% | +3.6% | +2.9% | +1.5% | +1.9% |
| 2026-04-14 beat | 6.62 | 7.15 | +8.0% | -2.9% | -2.4% | -2.6% | +6.9% |
| 2026-01-27 miss | 7.55 | 7.34 | -2.7% | +2.6% | -2.2% | -5.9% | +1.9% |
| 2025-10-15 beat | 5.37 | 5.49 | +2.1% | +4.8% | +2.7% | +0.2% | +1.0% |
| 2025-07-16 beat | 5.25 | 5.90 | +12.4% | -8.3% | -8.3% | -5.0% | +0.1% |
| 2025-04-16 beat | 5.79 | 6.00 | +3.7% | -5.3% | -7.1% | +6.3% | +17.8% |
| 2025-01-29 beat | 6.73 | 6.84 | +1.6% | +6.4% | +4.3% | +4.2% | -0.5% |
| 2024-10-15 beat | 4.86 | 5.28 | +8.6% | -0.6% | -16.3% | -1.3% | -7.8% |
| 2024-07-17 beat | 3.69 | 4.01 | +8.5% | -8.4% | -12.7% | -6.4% | -0.4% |
| 2024-04-17 beat | 2.79 | 3.11 | +11.6% | -3.5% | -7.1% | -1.7% | +1.3% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.