ASML chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.0% | -0.1% | 5.1% | 47% |
| Day 2 | +0.3% | +0.9% | 2.7% | 57% |
| Day 3 | +0.2% | +0.1% | 1.8% | 52% |
| 5-day | +0.8% | +0.7% | 8.0% | 55% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 beat | 6.95 | 7.58 | +9.1% | +3.6% | +2.9% | +1.5% | +1.9% |
| 2026-04-14 beat | 6.62 | 7.15 | +8.0% | -2.9% | -2.4% | -2.6% | +6.9% |
| 2026-01-27 miss | 7.55 | 7.34 | -2.7% | +2.6% | -2.2% | -5.9% | +1.9% |
| 2025-10-15 beat | 5.37 | 5.49 | +2.1% | +4.8% | +2.7% | +0.2% | +1.0% |
| 2025-07-16 beat | 5.25 | 5.90 | +12.4% | -8.3% | -8.3% | -5.0% | +0.1% |
| 2025-04-16 beat | 5.79 | 6.00 | +3.7% | -5.3% | -7.1% | +6.3% | +17.8% |
| 2025-01-29 beat | 6.73 | 6.84 | +1.6% | +6.4% | +4.3% | +4.2% | -0.5% |
| 2024-10-15 beat | 4.86 | 5.28 | +8.6% | -0.6% | -16.3% | -1.3% | -7.8% |
| 2024-07-17 beat | 3.69 | 4.01 | +8.5% | -8.4% | -12.7% | -6.4% | -0.4% |
| 2024-04-17 beat | 2.79 | 3.11 | +11.6% | -3.5% | -7.1% | -1.7% | +1.3% |
| 2024-01-24 beat | 4.78 | 5.20 | +8.9% | +6.2% | +8.9% | +2.7% | +10.1% |
| 2023-10-18 beat | 4.63 | 4.81 | +3.9% | -4.4% | -4.2% | +0.0% | +16.7% |
| 2023-07-19 beat | 4.61 | 4.93 | +6.9% | -2.4% | -5.4% | -4.4% | -10.0% |
| 2023-04-19 beat | 4.16 | 4.95 | +19.1% | -2.9% | -3.1% | -2.3% | +11.6% |
| 2023-01-25 beat | 4.33 | 4.60 | +6.2% | -1.9% | +1.7% | -0.4% | -9.3% |
| 2022-10-19 beat | 3.46 | 4.29 | +23.9% | +4.2% | +6.3% | +14.2% | +38.9% |
| 2022-07-20 beat | 3.52 | 3.54 | +0.6% | -1.1% | +3.2% | +6.2% | +9.1% |
| 2022-04-20 beat | 1.68 | 1.73 | +2.8% | +5.4% | +2.7% | -12.2% | -17.0% |
| 2022-01-19 beat | 3.76 | 3.93 | +4.6% | +3.0% | -2.3% | -6.5% | -6.9% |
| 2021-10-20 beat | 4.01 | 4.26 | +6.2% | -2.3% | -4.2% | +4.3% | +14.5% |
| 2021-07-21 miss | 2.52 | 2.52 | -0.1% | +3.2% | +5.4% | +5.4% | +8.4% |
| 2021-04-21 beat | 2.61 | 3.20 | +22.6% | +3.4% | +6.2% | +1.5% | -1.0% |
| 2021-01-20 beat | 2.46 | 3.23 | +31.4% | +1.1% | +0.0% | -4.5% | +8.2% |
| 2020-10-14 beat | 2.26 | 2.53 | +11.9% | -0.6% | -1.8% | -3.8% | +3.7% |
| 2020-07-15 miss | 2.06 | 1.79 | -13.2% | -2.4% | -5.4% | +4.6% | -0.2% |
| 2020-04-15 miss | 0.94 | 0.93 | -0.8% | -4.2% | -2.2% | +4.4% | +7.1% |
| 2020-01-22 miss | 2.71 | 2.69 | -0.7% | +0.7% | -0.7% | +0.0% | +3.3% |
| 2019-10-16 beat | 1.44 | 1.49 | +3.4% | -2.7% | -4.9% | +1.3% | +6.0% |
| 2019-07-17 beat | 0.95 | 1.13 | +18.9% | +6.2% | +6.2% | +7.5% | -3.6% |
| 2019-04-17 beat | 0.48 | 0.84 | +73.3% | +2.3% | -0.1% | +1.4% | -1.1% |
| 2019-01-23 beat | 1.78 | 1.86 | +4.7% | +2.4% | +1.6% | +9.3% | +14.0% |
| 2018-10-17 beat | 1.58 | 1.60 | +1.2% | +3.2% | +1.8% | -14.5% | -4.4% |
| 2018-07-18 beat | 1.21 | 1.37 | +13.5% | +4.3% | +6.6% | +0.5% | -9.2% |
| 2018-04-18 beat | 1.17 | 1.26 | +7.5% | -1.9% | -3.0% | -7.1% | -1.9% |
| 2018-01-17 beat | 1.06 | 1.49 | +40.4% | +4.6% | +6.9% | +1.5% | -2.1% |
| 2017-10-17 beat | 1.12 | 1.29 | +15.4% | -0.3% | -2.6% | +3.3% | +5.9% |
| 2017-07-19 beat | 0.95 | 1.08 | +14.0% | +3.7% | +5.2% | +2.6% | +0.0% |
| 2017-04-19 beat | 0.93 | 1.05 | +13.3% | +1.9% | -2.9% | +4.4% | +5.6% |
| 2017-01-18 beat | 0.98 | 1.22 | +24.6% | +5.3% | +6.1% | -0.2% | +3.5% |
| 2016-10-19 miss | 0.96 | 0.93 | -3.1% | +2.4% | +1.7% | -0.2% | -1.5% |
| 2016-07-20 beat | 0.80 | 0.83 | +3.7% | +1.8% | +2.4% | +1.3% | -2.0% |
| 2016-04-20 beat | 0.42 | 0.46 | +9.7% | -0.7% | -3.3% | +2.9% | -3.2% |
| 2016-01-20 beat | 0.60 | 0.68 | +12.6% | +1.6% | +6.2% | +5.2% | +3.2% |
| 2015-10-14 beat | 0.73 | 0.75 | +3.2% | -2.6% | +0.0% | +3.1% | +6.3% |
| 2015-07-15 beat | 0.80 | 0.85 | +6.5% | +2.9% | +3.5% | -5.5% | -11.2% |
| 2015-04-15 beat | 0.89 | 0.93 | +4.7% | +0.1% | -3.8% | +12.1% | +15.0% |
| 2015-01-21 beat | 0.47 | 0.70 | +48.7% | +1.2% | +2.7% | -1.8% | -1.6% |
| 2014-10-15 beat | 0.53 | 0.56 | +5.1% | -2.0% | -1.0% | +0.4% | +11.0% |
| 2014-07-16 beat | 0.77 | 0.90 | +16.7% | -3.4% | -2.5% | -1.5% | +3.1% |
| 2014-04-16 beat | 0.51 | 0.56 | +9.7% | -5.7% | -3.4% | +2.4% | -1.4% |
| 2014-01-22 beat | 0.96 | 1.08 | +12.2% | +4.9% | +4.8% | -6.2% | -2.6% |
| 2013-10-16 miss | 0.47 | 0.43 | -7.7% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -1.7% | -6.4% |
| 2013-07-17 beat | 0.48 | 0.51 | +6.2% | -0.7% | +0.1% | +0.7% | +2.6% |
| 2013-04-17 beat | 0.21 | 0.23 | +12.2% | +6.4% | +2.5% | +5.8% | +11.8% |
| 2013-01-17 beat | 0.38 | 0.65 | +73.3% | +2.6% | +7.1% | +8.3% | +8.2% |
| 2012-10-17 miss | 0.68 | 0.65 | -4.4% | -2.0% | -6.5% | +7.6% | +10.6% |
| 2012-07-18 beat | 0.67 | 0.71 | +5.5% | +0.8% | +6.0% | +0.0% | +5.8% |
| 2012-04-18 beat | 0.66 | 0.68 | +3.4% | -3.3% | -0.3% | +0.4% | -8.4% |
| 2012-01-18 beat | 0.56 | 0.68 | +21.4% | +2.2% | -0.9% | +2.4% | +10.5% |
| 2011-10-12 beat | 0.79 | 0.84 | +6.9% | +5.2% | +7.2% | +1.9% | +4.6% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.