BABA chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.5% | -1.1% | 7.1% | 50% |
| Day 2 | +0.2% | +0.7% | 4.1% | 60% |
| Day 3 | -1.1% | -0.6% | 4.7% | 30% |
| 5-day | -0.3% | -0.9% | 9.0% | 40% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 miss | 10.82 | 8.52 | -21.3% | -4.2% | +1.3% | -10.9% | — |
| 2026-05-13 miss | 5.74 | 0.62 | -89.2% | -2.0% | +8.2% | -7.8% | -22.6% |
| 2026-03-19 miss | 10.94 | 7.09 | -35.2% | -8.5% | -7.1% | +0.4% | +12.2% |
| 2025-11-25 miss | 5.78 | 4.36 | -24.6% | +2.8% | -2.3% | +0.7% | -3.0% |
| 2025-08-29 miss | 15.47 | 14.75 | -4.7% | +7.8% | +12.9% | +4.6% | +32.4% |
| 2025-05-15 miss | 12.81 | 12.52 | -2.3% | -5.8% | -7.6% | -2.0% | -6.4% |
| 2025-02-20 beat | 19.38 | 21.39 | +10.4% | +9.6% | +8.1% | +0.4% | -0.6% |
| 2024-11-15 beat | 14.77 | 15.06 | +1.9% | -0.4% | -2.2% | -6.2% | -1.6% |
| 2024-08-15 beat | 14.94 | 16.44 | +10.0% | -2.0% | +0.1% | +4.3% | +5.1% |
| 2024-05-14 miss | 10.24 | 10.14 | -0.9% | -5.9% | -6.0% | +8.3% | -4.8% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.