CMI chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +1.6% | +3.0% | 5.4% | 70% |
| Day 2 | +1.6% | +2.0% | 3.4% | 80% |
| Day 3 | -0.1% | -0.2% | 2.4% | 40% |
| 5-day | +5.1% | +6.7% | 4.9% | 80% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 miss | 7.17 | 6.73 | -6.1% | -10.8% | -2.0% | -0.5% | -13.4% |
| 2026-05-05 beat | 5.65 | 6.15 | +8.8% | +4.1% | +2.8% | +4.4% | +0.5% |
| 2026-02-05 beat | 5.08 | 5.81 | +14.3% | -6.8% | -10.7% | +8.9% | +1.8% |
| 2025-11-06 miss | 4.77 | 3.86 | -19.0% | +5.0% | +5.4% | +1.0% | +9.7% |
| 2025-08-05 beat | 5.21 | 6.43 | +23.5% | +3.7% | +3.2% | +6.9% | +7.4% |
| 2025-05-05 beat | 4.92 | 5.96 | +21.0% | -3.0% | +0.8% | +9.4% | +6.8% |
| 2025-02-04 miss | 4.69 | 4.54 | -3.3% | +3.7% | +4.4% | +2.5% | -5.1% |
| 2024-11-05 beat | 4.81 | 5.86 | +21.9% | +0.7% | +8.9% | +0.2% | +6.8% |
| 2024-08-01 beat | 4.76 | 5.26 | +10.4% | +4.5% | +4.9% | -2.9% | +2.2% |
| 2024-05-02 beat | 4.96 | 5.10 | +2.7% | -1.4% | -1.3% | +5.1% | -1.8% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.