MKL chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.3% | -1.4% | 5.5% | 40% |
| Day 2 | +0.3% | +0.2% | 1.8% | 55% |
| Day 3 | -0.3% | +0.1% | 1.4% | 50% |
| 5-day | -1.0% | -2.5% | 5.8% | 45% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 miss | 30.57 | 19.79 | -35.3% | -2.8% | -6.4% | -0.8% | -3.6% |
| 2026-04-28 miss | 26.34 | 23.55 | -10.6% | -2.8% | -7.8% | +1.5% | +3.2% |
| 2026-02-04 beat | 25.73 | 37.41 | +45.4% | +2.2% | +2.0% | -0.6% | -6.4% |
| 2025-10-29 beat | 23.77 | 31.61 | +33.0% | +3.5% | +6.1% | +3.7% | +7.0% |
| 2025-07-30 beat | 25.04 | 25.62 | +2.3% | +0.3% | +0.1% | -5.5% | -2.5% |
| 2025-04-30 beat | 17.97 | 23.64 | +31.6% | -0.9% | +0.3% | +3.1% | +7.4% |
| 2025-02-05 beat | 19.00 | 23.19 | +22.0% | +1.9% | +10.7% | -7.9% | -10.9% |
| 2024-10-30 miss | 21.67 | 20.92 | -3.4% | -1.3% | -1.5% | +6.1% | +14.4% |
| 2024-07-31 beat | 21.77 | 26.43 | +21.4% | -0.1% | -4.4% | -3.4% | +2.2% |
| 2024-05-01 beat | 18.30 | 21.23 | +16.0% | +1.8% | +6.8% | +3.8% | +3.5% |
| 2024-01-31 miss | 22.70 | 6.00 | -73.6% | -7.2% | -6.8% | +1.0% | +6.4% |
| 2023-11-01 miss | 20.39 | 16.60 | -18.6% | -4.2% | -12.8% | +3.2% | +8.4% |
| 2023-08-02 beat | 17.70 | 22.91 | +29.4% | -0.2% | +2.0% | +2.0% | +1.0% |
| 2023-04-26 miss | 16.18 | 16.08 | -0.6% | -0.1% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +0.4% |
| 2023-02-01 beat | 18.04 | 25.57 | +41.7% | -1.5% | -7.0% | +3.9% | +2.4% |
| 2022-11-01 miss | 15.71 | 15.48 | -1.5% | -0.2% | +0.0% | +0.7% | +11.3% |
| 2022-08-02 miss | 20.64 | 14.52 | -29.7% | -1.1% | -3.1% | -1.3% | -1.4% |
| 2022-04-26 miss | 17.00 | 11.34 | -33.3% | +0.2% | -1.7% | -2.2% | -1.6% |
| 2022-02-02 beat | 16.11 | 17.01 | +5.7% | -0.5% | -2.4% | -0.5% | -3.3% |
| 2021-11-02 beat | 13.28 | 13.79 | +3.9% | -0.9% | -1.4% | -0.7% | -7.8% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.