MS chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +2.9% | +3.2% | 2.6% | 90% |
| Day 2 | -0.5% | +0.3% | 1.9% | 50% |
| Day 3 | -0.5% | -0.2% | 1.6% | 40% |
| 5-day | +1.8% | +1.1% | 3.8% | 60% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 beat | 2.93 | 3.46 | +17.9% | -2.2% | +0.4% | -4.4% | -4.4% |
| 2026-04-15 beat | 3.02 | 3.43 | +13.6% | +2.8% | +4.5% | -0.3% | +1.5% |
| 2026-01-15 beat | 2.45 | 2.68 | +9.4% | +0.1% | +5.8% | -6.4% | -10.3% |
| 2025-10-15 beat | 2.11 | 2.80 | +32.6% | +4.9% | +4.7% | -2.8% | +1.8% |
| 2025-07-16 beat | 1.98 | 2.13 | +7.5% | -1.5% | -1.3% | +1.7% | +6.2% |
| 2025-04-11 beat | 2.21 | 2.60 | +17.7% | -3.5% | +1.4% | -1.7% | +19.6% |
| 2025-01-16 beat | 1.69 | 2.22 | +31.4% | +1.4% | +4.0% | +1.5% | +3.6% |
| 2024-10-16 beat | 1.58 | 1.88 | +19.0% | +4.2% | +6.5% | -1.0% | +10.8% |
| 2024-07-16 beat | 1.65 | 1.82 | +10.2% | -1.1% | +0.9% | -2.6% | -6.4% |
| 2024-04-16 beat | 1.65 | 2.02 | +22.4% | +4.3% | +2.5% | +5.2% | +12.8% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.