MS chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +1.5% | +1.4% | 3.4% | 73% |
| Day 2 | +0.3% | +0.6% | 1.9% | 53% |
| Day 3 | -0.4% | -0.6% | 1.7% | 40% |
| 5-day | +1.4% | +1.2% | 4.8% | 63% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 beat | 2.93 | 3.46 | +17.9% | -2.2% | +0.4% | -4.4% | -4.4% |
| 2026-04-15 beat | 3.02 | 3.43 | +13.6% | +2.8% | +4.5% | -0.3% | +1.5% |
| 2026-01-15 beat | 2.45 | 2.68 | +9.4% | +0.1% | +5.8% | -6.4% | -10.3% |
| 2025-10-15 beat | 2.11 | 2.80 | +32.6% | +4.9% | +4.7% | -2.8% | +1.8% |
| 2025-07-16 beat | 1.98 | 2.13 | +7.5% | -1.5% | -1.3% | +1.7% | +6.2% |
| 2025-04-11 beat | 2.21 | 2.60 | +17.7% | -3.5% | +1.4% | -1.7% | +19.6% |
| 2025-01-16 beat | 1.69 | 2.22 | +31.4% | +1.4% | +4.0% | +1.5% | +3.6% |
| 2024-10-16 beat | 1.58 | 1.88 | +19.0% | +4.2% | +6.5% | -1.0% | +10.8% |
| 2024-07-16 beat | 1.65 | 1.82 | +10.2% | -1.1% | +0.9% | -2.6% | -6.4% |
| 2024-04-16 beat | 1.65 | 2.02 | +22.4% | +4.3% | +2.5% | +5.2% | +12.8% |
| 2024-01-16 miss | 1.03 | 0.85 | -17.8% | -3.3% | -4.2% | +0.9% | -2.3% |
| 2023-10-18 beat | 1.29 | 1.38 | +6.8% | -4.9% | -6.8% | -4.6% | +6.4% |
| 2023-07-18 beat | 1.21 | 1.44 | +18.9% | +1.4% | +6.4% | +2.7% | -6.5% |
| 2023-04-19 beat | 1.66 | 1.74 | +4.9% | -3.0% | +0.7% | -2.2% | -6.6% |
| 2023-01-17 beat | 1.29 | 1.31 | +1.4% | +4.6% | +5.9% | -1.6% | +3.9% |
| 2022-10-14 miss | 1.51 | 1.47 | -2.8% | -2.6% | -5.1% | +5.2% | +19.3% |
| 2022-07-14 miss | 1.60 | 1.53 | -4.1% | -1.3% | -0.4% | +11.2% | +22.7% |
| 2022-04-14 beat | 1.72 | 2.06 | +19.7% | +2.2% | +0.7% | +0.0% | -5.7% |
| 2022-01-19 beat | 1.96 | 2.08 | +5.9% | +4.3% | +1.8% | +4.6% | +0.4% |
| 2021-10-14 beat | 1.68 | 2.04 | +21.6% | +2.7% | +2.5% | -0.7% | -1.1% |
| 2021-07-15 beat | 1.65 | 1.85 | +11.9% | -1.2% | +0.2% | +3.2% | +12.2% |
| 2021-04-16 beat | 1.71 | 2.19 | +27.9% | +0.2% | -2.8% | +3.0% | +12.1% |
| 2021-01-20 beat | 1.28 | 1.92 | +50.0% | +2.0% | -0.2% | -8.6% | +1.5% |
| 2020-10-15 beat | 1.26 | 1.66 | +31.4% | -1.4% | +1.3% | +0.9% | +10.3% |
| 2020-07-16 beat | 1.11 | 1.96 | +76.3% | +0.4% | +2.5% | -4.0% | -0.6% |
| 2020-04-16 miss | 1.08 | 0.99 | -8.7% | -1.4% | -0.1% | -2.3% | -2.8% |
| 2020-01-16 beat | 1.00 | 1.30 | +30.2% | +5.9% | +6.6% | -3.3% | -1.6% |
| 2019-10-17 beat | 1.11 | 1.27 | +14.8% | +3.7% | +1.5% | +5.3% | +12.8% |
| 2019-07-18 beat | 1.16 | 1.23 | +6.3% | -0.2% | +1.5% | +1.0% | -10.1% |
| 2019-04-17 beat | 1.17 | 1.39 | +18.5% | +1.8% | +2.6% | -2.0% | -9.1% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.