MS chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +1.1% | +1.4% | 3.4% | 68% |
| Day 2 | +0.3% | +0.3% | 1.9% | 53% |
| Day 3 | -0.3% | -0.4% | 1.7% | 42% |
| 5-day | +1.2% | +1.4% | 4.5% | 62% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 beat | 2.93 | 3.46 | +17.9% | -2.2% | +0.4% | -4.4% | -4.4% |
| 2026-04-15 beat | 3.02 | 3.43 | +13.6% | +2.8% | +4.5% | -0.3% | +1.5% |
| 2026-01-15 beat | 2.45 | 2.68 | +9.4% | +0.1% | +5.8% | -6.4% | -10.3% |
| 2025-10-15 beat | 2.11 | 2.80 | +32.6% | +4.9% | +4.7% | -2.8% | +1.8% |
| 2025-07-16 beat | 1.98 | 2.13 | +7.5% | -1.5% | -1.3% | +1.7% | +6.2% |
| 2025-04-11 beat | 2.21 | 2.60 | +17.7% | -3.5% | +1.4% | -1.7% | +19.6% |
| 2025-01-16 beat | 1.69 | 2.22 | +31.4% | +1.4% | +4.0% | +1.5% | +3.6% |
| 2024-10-16 beat | 1.58 | 1.88 | +19.0% | +4.2% | +6.5% | -1.0% | +10.8% |
| 2024-07-16 beat | 1.65 | 1.82 | +10.2% | -1.1% | +0.9% | -2.6% | -6.4% |
| 2024-04-16 beat | 1.65 | 2.02 | +22.4% | +4.3% | +2.5% | +5.2% | +12.8% |
| 2024-01-16 miss | 1.03 | 0.85 | -17.8% | -3.3% | -4.2% | +0.9% | -2.3% |
| 2023-10-18 beat | 1.29 | 1.38 | +6.8% | -4.9% | -6.8% | -4.6% | +6.4% |
| 2023-07-18 beat | 1.21 | 1.44 | +18.9% | +1.4% | +6.4% | +2.7% | -6.5% |
| 2023-04-19 beat | 1.66 | 1.74 | +4.9% | -3.0% | +0.7% | -2.2% | -6.6% |
| 2023-01-17 beat | 1.29 | 1.31 | +1.4% | +4.6% | +5.9% | -1.6% | +3.9% |
| 2022-10-14 miss | 1.51 | 1.47 | -2.8% | -2.6% | -5.1% | +5.2% | +19.3% |
| 2022-07-14 miss | 1.60 | 1.53 | -4.1% | -1.3% | -0.4% | +11.2% | +22.7% |
| 2022-04-14 beat | 1.72 | 2.06 | +19.7% | +2.2% | +0.7% | +0.0% | -5.7% |
| 2022-01-19 beat | 1.96 | 2.08 | +5.9% | +4.3% | +1.8% | +4.6% | +0.4% |
| 2021-10-14 beat | 1.68 | 2.04 | +21.6% | +2.7% | +2.5% | -0.7% | -1.1% |
| 2021-07-15 beat | 1.65 | 1.85 | +11.9% | -1.2% | +0.2% | +3.2% | +12.2% |
| 2021-04-16 beat | 1.71 | 2.19 | +27.9% | +0.2% | -2.8% | +3.0% | +12.1% |
| 2021-01-20 beat | 1.28 | 1.92 | +50.0% | +2.0% | -0.2% | -8.6% | +1.5% |
| 2020-10-15 beat | 1.26 | 1.66 | +31.4% | -1.4% | +1.3% | +0.9% | +10.3% |
| 2020-07-16 beat | 1.11 | 1.96 | +76.3% | +0.4% | +2.5% | -4.0% | -0.6% |
| 2020-04-16 miss | 1.08 | 0.99 | -8.7% | -1.4% | -0.1% | -2.3% | -2.8% |
| 2020-01-16 beat | 1.00 | 1.30 | +30.2% | +5.9% | +6.6% | -3.3% | -1.6% |
| 2019-10-17 beat | 1.11 | 1.27 | +14.8% | +3.7% | +1.5% | +5.3% | +12.8% |
| 2019-07-18 beat | 1.16 | 1.23 | +6.3% | -0.2% | +1.5% | +1.0% | -10.1% |
| 2019-04-17 beat | 1.17 | 1.39 | +18.5% | +1.8% | +2.6% | -2.0% | -9.1% |
| 2019-01-17 miss | 0.89 | 0.80 | -10.0% | -4.6% | -4.4% | +1.1% | -0.9% |
| 2018-10-16 beat | 1.02 | 1.17 | +14.3% | +5.2% | +5.7% | -3.1% | -4.5% |
| 2018-07-18 beat | 1.10 | 1.25 | +13.3% | +3.2% | +2.8% | +0.9% | -4.5% |
| 2018-04-18 beat | 1.25 | 1.45 | +16.1% | +1.3% | +0.0% | -2.3% | +3.0% |
| 2018-01-18 beat | 0.78 | 0.84 | +7.6% | +1.0% | +0.9% | +1.7% | -1.3% |
| 2017-10-17 beat | 0.81 | 0.93 | +15.1% | +1.5% | +0.4% | +4.0% | -2.1% |
| 2017-07-19 beat | 0.77 | 0.87 | +12.7% | +4.0% | +3.3% | +1.3% | -3.3% |
| 2017-04-19 beat | 0.90 | 1.00 | +11.3% | +2.7% | +2.0% | +5.5% | -1.7% |
| 2017-01-17 beat | 0.65 | 0.81 | +25.1% | -0.1% | -3.8% | +1.4% | +10.3% |
| 2016-10-19 beat | 0.63 | 0.80 | +27.2% | +1.6% | +1.9% | +2.0% | +21.4% |
| 2016-07-20 beat | 0.59 | 0.75 | +26.1% | +3.4% | +2.1% | +0.8% | +6.2% |
| 2016-04-18 beat | 0.49 | 0.55 | +12.8% | +1.6% | -0.1% | +7.0% | +1.7% |
| 2016-01-19 beat | 0.30 | 0.39 | +28.8% | +3.3% | +1.1% | -2.9% | -8.8% |
| 2015-10-19 miss | 0.64 | 0.48 | -25.3% | -6.0% | -4.8% | +0.7% | +3.9% |
| 2015-07-20 beat | 0.74 | 0.85 | +14.2% | +1.7% | -0.4% | -2.0% | -5.5% |
| 2015-04-20 beat | 0.79 | 0.85 | +8.2% | +1.6% | +0.6% | +0.2% | +4.7% |
| 2015-01-20 miss | 0.75 | 0.47 | -37.3% | -2.6% | -0.4% | -0.3% | +4.5% |
| 2014-10-17 beat | 0.55 | 0.84 | +54.0% | +3.7% | +2.1% | +3.3% | +7.2% |
| 2014-07-17 beat | 0.55 | 0.94 | +71.1% | +1.7% | -0.6% | +3.4% | -0.2% |
| 2014-04-17 beat | 0.60 | 0.68 | +13.6% | +2.8% | +2.9% | -0.6% | -2.0% |
| 2014-01-17 beat | 0.45 | 0.50 | +11.3% | +2.6% | +4.4% | -10.3% | -13.3% |
| 2013-10-18 beat | 0.41 | 0.50 | +21.2% | +3.4% | +2.6% | -1.5% | +2.2% |
| 2013-07-18 miss | 0.45 | 0.45 | -0.1% | +4.3% | +4.4% | +0.2% | -4.4% |
| 2013-04-18 beat | 0.56 | 0.61 | +8.7% | -0.6% | -5.4% | +5.5% | +24.0% |
| 2013-01-18 beat | 0.27 | 0.45 | +63.7% | +5.9% | +7.9% | -0.3% | +4.6% |
| 2012-10-18 beat | 0.24 | 0.28 | +14.9% | +0.4% | -3.8% | -3.9% | -8.1% |
| 2012-07-19 miss | 0.32 | 0.16 | -50.7% | -3.6% | -5.3% | -1.9% | +10.1% |
| 2012-04-19 beat | 0.45 | 0.71 | +59.0% | +4.9% | +2.3% | -4.8% | -26.1% |
| 2012-01-19 beat | -0.53 | -0.14 | +73.7% | +6.2% | +5.4% | -0.4% | +4.8% |
| 2011-10-19 beat | 0.31 | 1.15 | +273.6% | +2.6% | +0.1% | +0.0% | -15.1% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.