NVAX chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +15.5% | +10.5% | 30.4% | 70% |
| Day 2 | +5.2% | -1.0% | 17.8% | 40% |
| Day 3 | -0.2% | -0.6% | 5.4% | 40% |
| 5-day | +25.9% | +6.6% | 59.3% | 80% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 beat | -0.38 | -0.32 | +16.6% | +1.7% | +0.5% | +5.2% | +32.0% |
| 2026-05-06 beat | -0.37 | -0.06 | +83.8% | +5.7% | +15.6% | -1.4% | +1.4% |
| 2026-02-26 beat | -0.55 | 0.11 | +120.2% | +3.1% | +17.4% | -10.7% | -24.5% |
| 2025-11-06 beat | -1.13 | -0.47 | +58.0% | -2.1% | -1.3% | -7.0% | -10.7% |
| 2025-08-06 beat | 0.06 | 0.62 | +1000.3% | +7.1% | +12.6% | +16.8% | +4.2% |
| 2025-05-08 beat | 0.71 | 2.93 | +313.5% | +20.8% | +11.9% | -5.6% | +11.3% |
| 2025-02-27 miss | -0.51 | -0.52 | -1.2% | +2.9% | -3.6% | +11.5% | -0.8% |
| 2024-11-12 miss | -0.75 | -0.76 | -1.9% | -10.7% | -6.1% | -5.4% | +6.6% |
| 2024-08-08 miss | 1.70 | 0.99 | -41.8% | -16.0% | +9.1% | +8.2% | +9.4% |
| 2024-05-10 beat | -1.08 | -1.05 | +2.8% | +124.2% | +98.7% | +46.5% | +88.4% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.