NVAX chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +4.0% | -0.5% | 26.8% | 50% |
| Day 2 | +3.2% | +0.2% | 14.5% | 50% |
| Day 3 | +1.9% | +0.1% | 6.6% | 50% |
| 5-day | +8.7% | +0.1% | 45.1% | 50% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 beat | -0.38 | -0.32 | +16.6% | +1.7% | +0.5% | +5.2% | +32.0% |
| 2026-05-06 beat | -0.37 | -0.06 | +83.8% | +5.7% | +15.6% | -1.4% | +1.4% |
| 2026-02-26 beat | -0.55 | 0.11 | +120.2% | +3.1% | +17.4% | -10.7% | -24.5% |
| 2025-11-06 beat | -1.13 | -0.47 | +58.0% | -2.1% | -1.3% | -7.0% | -10.7% |
| 2025-08-06 beat | 0.06 | 0.62 | +1000.3% | +7.1% | +12.6% | +16.8% | +4.2% |
| 2025-05-08 beat | 0.71 | 2.93 | +313.5% | +20.8% | +11.9% | -5.6% | +11.3% |
| 2025-02-27 miss | -0.51 | -0.52 | -1.2% | +2.9% | -3.6% | +11.5% | -0.8% |
| 2024-11-12 miss | -0.75 | -0.76 | -1.9% | -10.7% | -6.1% | -5.4% | +6.6% |
| 2024-08-08 miss | 1.70 | 0.99 | -41.8% | -16.0% | +9.1% | +8.2% | +9.4% |
| 2024-05-10 beat | -1.08 | -1.05 | +2.8% | +124.2% | +98.7% | +46.5% | +88.4% |
| 2024-02-28 miss | -0.35 | -1.44 | -313.4% | -22.9% | -26.7% | +27.2% | +8.4% |
| 2023-11-09 beat | -2.21 | -1.26 | +43.0% | +1.9% | -1.3% | -13.1% | -17.0% |
| 2023-08-08 beat | -1.16 | 0.58 | +149.8% | +8.0% | -3.9% | +0.1% | +26.6% |
| 2023-05-09 beat | -3.42 | -3.41 | +0.3% | +20.4% | +27.8% | -19.7% | -19.2% |
| 2023-02-28 miss | -1.05 | -2.28 | -117.6% | -26.2% | -25.9% | +0.4% | -3.9% |
| 2022-11-08 miss | 1.59 | -2.15 | -235.0% | +0.2% | -5.2% | +15.2% | -11.4% |
| 2022-08-08 miss | 5.18 | -6.53 | -226.0% | -30.2% | -29.6% | +6.5% | -24.8% |
| 2022-05-09 miss | 2.65 | 2.56 | -3.5% | -21.0% | +1.1% | -3.5% | -23.0% |
| 2022-02-28 miss | -1.80 | -11.18 | -520.4% | -4.7% | +0.4% | -13.1% | -10.7% |
| 2021-11-04 miss | -3.55 | -4.31 | -21.5% | -10.8% | -11.3% | +6.7% | +14.9% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.