NVAX chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.3% | -1.6% | 19.2% | 42% |
| Day 2 | +0.9% | -0.7% | 9.7% | 45% |
| Day 3 | -0.0% | -0.2% | 6.2% | 42% |
| 5-day | +4.8% | +1.2% | 32.8% | 52% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 beat | -0.38 | -0.32 | +16.6% | +1.7% | +0.5% | +5.2% | +32.0% |
| 2026-05-06 beat | -0.37 | -0.06 | +83.8% | +5.7% | +15.6% | -1.4% | +1.4% |
| 2026-02-26 beat | -0.55 | 0.11 | +120.2% | +3.1% | +17.4% | -10.7% | -24.5% |
| 2025-11-06 beat | -1.13 | -0.47 | +58.0% | -2.1% | -1.3% | -7.0% | -10.7% |
| 2025-08-06 beat | 0.06 | 0.62 | +1000.3% | +7.1% | +12.6% | +16.8% | +4.2% |
| 2025-05-08 beat | 0.71 | 2.93 | +313.5% | +20.8% | +11.9% | -5.6% | +11.3% |
| 2025-02-27 miss | -0.51 | -0.52 | -1.2% | +2.9% | -3.6% | +11.5% | -0.8% |
| 2024-11-12 miss | -0.75 | -0.76 | -1.9% | -10.7% | -6.1% | -5.4% | +6.6% |
| 2024-08-08 miss | 1.70 | 0.99 | -41.8% | -16.0% | +9.1% | +8.2% | +9.4% |
| 2024-05-10 beat | -1.08 | -1.05 | +2.8% | +124.2% | +98.7% | +46.5% | +88.4% |
| 2024-02-28 miss | -0.35 | -1.44 | -313.4% | -22.9% | -26.7% | +27.2% | +8.4% |
| 2023-11-09 beat | -2.21 | -1.26 | +43.0% | +1.9% | -1.3% | -13.1% | -17.0% |
| 2023-08-08 beat | -1.16 | 0.58 | +149.8% | +8.0% | -3.9% | +0.1% | +26.6% |
| 2023-05-09 beat | -3.42 | -3.41 | +0.3% | +20.4% | +27.8% | -19.7% | -19.2% |
| 2023-02-28 miss | -1.05 | -2.28 | -117.6% | -26.2% | -25.9% | +0.4% | -3.9% |
| 2022-11-08 miss | 1.59 | -2.15 | -235.0% | +0.2% | -5.2% | +15.2% | -11.4% |
| 2022-08-08 miss | 5.18 | -6.53 | -226.0% | -30.2% | -29.6% | +6.5% | -24.8% |
| 2022-05-09 miss | 2.65 | 2.56 | -3.5% | -21.0% | +1.1% | -3.5% | -23.0% |
| 2022-02-28 miss | -1.80 | -11.18 | -520.4% | -4.7% | +0.4% | -13.1% | -10.7% |
| 2021-11-04 miss | -3.55 | -4.31 | -21.5% | -10.8% | -11.3% | +6.7% | +14.9% |
| 2021-08-05 miss | -3.25 | -4.75 | -46.2% | -15.3% | -19.6% | +35.5% | +42.5% |
| 2021-05-10 beat | -3.60 | -3.05 | +15.2% | -16.5% | -13.9% | +4.6% | +48.3% |
| 2021-03-01 miss | -2.24 | -2.70 | -20.7% | -6.1% | -14.3% | -17.5% | -12.0% |
| 2020-11-09 miss | 1.73 | -3.21 | -285.4% | -5.5% | -12.8% | +18.0% | +46.2% |
| 2020-08-10 beat | -0.33 | -0.30 | +9.8% | -4.9% | -16.3% | -2.2% | -37.9% |
| 2020-05-11 beat | -0.67 | -0.58 | +13.9% | +59.3% | +62.5% | +35.4% | +11.6% |
| 2020-03-11 miss | -1.05 | -1.13 | -7.9% | -9.5% | -11.6% | +24.7% | +89.9% |
| 2019-11-07 miss | -0.89 | -1.11 | -24.5% | +3.1% | +2.0% | -10.5% | -9.2% |
| 2019-08-07 miss | -1.59 | -1.69 | -6.4% | -1.5% | -5.4% | +51.5% | +24.5% |
| 2019-05-02 beat | -2.26 | -2.20 | +2.6% | -3.8% | -11.3% | -30.1% | -32.9% |
| 2019-03-18 miss | -2.39 | -2.60 | -8.6% | +1.9% | +5.8% | -3.6% | -3.6% |
| 2018-11-07 beat | -2.52 | -2.40 | +4.8% | -1.5% | -6.6% | -3.3% | +21.2% |
| 2018-08-08 beat | -2.46 | -2.40 | +2.6% | +3.3% | +21.5% | -12.2% | +0.7% |
| 2018-05-09 miss | -2.78 | -2.80 | -0.8% | -4.1% | -6.4% | +8.1% | -1.9% |
| 2018-03-14 miss | -3.11 | -3.20 | -2.8% | -1.9% | -1.4% | -1.9% | -13.6% |
| 2017-11-07 beat | -3.19 | -3.00 | +5.9% | +0.0% | +1.8% | +1.8% | +25.4% |
| 2017-08-08 miss | -3.17 | -3.20 | -1.0% | +10.3% | +2.1% | +2.0% | +17.2% |
| 2017-05-08 beat | -3.47 | -3.20 | +7.8% | +9.6% | +16.4% | +32.9% | +22.4% |
| 2017-02-27 beat | -4.56 | -4.20 | +7.9% | -8.0% | -7.4% | -6.0% | -15.2% |
| 2016-11-09 beat | -5.24 | -4.80 | +8.3% | -13.5% | -17.6% | -6.4% | -3.6% |
| 2016-08-09 miss | -5.08 | -5.80 | -14.2% | -3.2% | -9.8% | +7.8% | +14.1% |
| 2016-05-04 miss | -5.41 | -5.80 | -7.3% | -1.5% | -4.2% | -5.5% | +41.3% |
| 2016-02-29 miss | -2.95 | -5.80 | -96.4% | -1.1% | -7.4% | +17.9% | +17.9% |
| 2015-11-09 miss | -1.90 | -2.40 | -26.3% | -8.6% | -6.2% | -6.5% | +6.3% |
| 2015-08-10 beat | -1.81 | -1.60 | +11.5% | +10.2% | +24.1% | -2.9% | -27.3% |
| 2015-05-07 beat | -2.20 | -2.00 | +9.1% | +0.0% | +4.3% | +3.8% | +8.7% |
| 2015-02-26 miss | -1.80 | -2.60 | -44.4% | -7.1% | -1.7% | -3.8% | -5.6% |
| 2014-11-05 | -1.60 | -1.60 | — | +1.2% | +0.4% | +0.8% | +6.6% |
| 2014-08-06 miss | -1.30 | -1.60 | -23.1% | -5.5% | -7.9% | +10.2% | +16.1% |
| 2014-05-07 beat | -1.60 | -1.40 | +12.5% | -2.7% | -4.7% | +9.4% | +14.7% |
| 2014-03-10 beat | -1.47 | -1.40 | +4.5% | +7.0% | +0.7% | -9.2% | -26.1% |
| 2013-11-07 miss | -1.15 | -1.80 | -56.5% | -0.4% | +5.1% | +4.8% | +44.5% |
| 2013-08-08 miss | -1.13 | -1.60 | -41.2% | -0.4% | -9.2% | +14.4% | +42.4% |
| 2013-05-07 miss | -1.12 | -1.40 | -25.0% | +4.0% | -8.4% | +4.4% | -4.9% |
| 2013-03-01 miss | -0.84 | -1.20 | -42.9% | -1.1% | +0.5% | +12.0% | +28.4% |
| 2012-11-02 | -1.00 | -1.00 | — | +0.0% | -4.4% | -12.4% | -3.6% |
| 2012-08-03 miss | -0.96 | -1.00 | -4.2% | -1.9% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -2.4% |
| 2012-05-04 miss | -0.76 | -1.20 | -57.9% | +0.0% | +2.2% | -5.8% | -10.9% |
| 2012-03-09 beat | -0.77 | -0.60 | +21.7% | +0.0% | -1.5% | +7.0% | -9.3% |
| 2011-11-04 beat | -1.16 | -0.60 | +48.3% | +0.6% | +0.6% | -1.9% | -2.6% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.