NVR chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.3% | -0.8% | 2.1% | 30% |
| Day 2 | -0.2% | -0.4% | 1.8% | 20% |
| Day 3 | -0.4% | +0.1% | 1.7% | 50% |
| 5-day | -3.1% | -4.1% | 4.8% | 20% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 miss | 89.98 | 83.96 | -6.7% | -2.7% | -3.1% | +2.2% | +3.3% |
| 2026-04-22 miss | 79.20 | 67.76 | -14.4% | -4.2% | -4.7% | -6.1% | -8.5% |
| 2026-01-28 beat | 105.90 | 121.54 | +14.8% | +1.3% | +1.7% | +5.2% | -1.4% |
| 2025-10-22 beat | 109.36 | 112.33 | +2.7% | -0.8% | -1.2% | -4.7% | -6.9% |
| 2025-07-23 beat | 106.20 | 108.54 | +2.2% | +1.1% | -0.1% | -3.4% | +0.7% |
| 2025-04-22 miss | 106.07 | 94.83 | -10.6% | -1.9% | +0.5% | -0.7% | -1.2% |
| 2025-01-28 beat | 129.35 | 139.93 | +8.2% | +1.1% | -3.8% | -3.4% | -10.9% |
| 2024-10-22 miss | 131.00 | 130.50 | -0.4% | -0.6% | -2.3% | -3.2% | -4.6% |
| 2024-07-23 miss | 121.21 | 120.69 | -0.4% | -1.5% | -0.5% | +0.7% | +3.7% |
| 2024-04-23 beat | 103.97 | 116.41 | +12.0% | +0.3% | +0.4% | -5.1% | -4.8% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.