NVR chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.5% | -0.3% | 2.8% | 45% |
| Day 2 | -0.2% | -0.4% | 1.6% | 30% |
| Day 3 | +0.1% | +0.3% | 1.6% | 60% |
| 5-day | -1.4% | -1.2% | 4.4% | 35% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 miss | 89.98 | 83.96 | -6.7% | -2.7% | -3.1% | +2.2% | +3.3% |
| 2026-04-22 miss | 79.20 | 67.76 | -14.4% | -4.2% | -4.7% | -6.1% | -8.5% |
| 2026-01-28 beat | 105.90 | 121.54 | +14.8% | +1.3% | +1.7% | +5.2% | -1.4% |
| 2025-10-22 beat | 109.36 | 112.33 | +2.7% | -0.8% | -1.2% | -4.7% | -6.9% |
| 2025-07-23 beat | 106.20 | 108.54 | +2.2% | +1.1% | -0.1% | -3.4% | +0.7% |
| 2025-04-22 miss | 106.07 | 94.83 | -10.6% | -1.9% | +0.5% | -0.7% | -1.2% |
| 2025-01-28 beat | 129.35 | 139.93 | +8.2% | +1.1% | -3.8% | -3.4% | -10.9% |
| 2024-10-22 miss | 131.00 | 130.50 | -0.4% | -0.6% | -2.3% | -3.2% | -4.6% |
| 2024-07-23 miss | 121.21 | 120.69 | -0.4% | -1.5% | -0.5% | +0.7% | +3.7% |
| 2024-04-23 beat | 103.97 | 116.41 | +12.0% | +0.3% | +0.4% | -5.1% | -4.8% |
| 2024-01-30 beat | 121.50 | 121.56 | +0.1% | +0.3% | +0.2% | +3.0% | +7.1% |
| 2023-10-24 beat | 115.60 | 125.26 | +8.3% | +0.0% | -2.2% | +0.5% | +15.5% |
| 2023-07-25 beat | 101.50 | 116.54 | +14.8% | -0.3% | +2.1% | -0.6% | -3.6% |
| 2023-04-25 beat | 88.96 | 99.89 | +12.3% | +0.2% | -3.6% | +2.3% | -2.9% |
| 2023-01-31 beat | 98.88 | 133.44 | +35.0% | +3.5% | +5.0% | -2.0% | -1.0% |
| 2022-10-25 miss | 121.71 | 118.51 | -2.6% | +0.1% | +5.7% | -0.7% | +5.2% |
| 2022-07-26 miss | 126.82 | 123.65 | -2.5% | -0.6% | -2.3% | -2.6% | -1.6% |
| 2022-04-26 beat | 96.94 | 116.56 | +20.2% | +1.7% | +1.4% | +1.4% | -5.1% |
| 2022-02-01 miss | 99.77 | 89.09 | -10.7% | -1.1% | +0.7% | -1.2% | -8.1% |
| 2021-10-21 miss | 88.98 | 86.44 | -2.9% | -0.6% | -3.0% | +0.0% | +6.4% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.