NVR chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.0% | -0.2% | 4.5% | 45% |
| Day 2 | +0.4% | +0.2% | 1.8% | 52% |
| Day 3 | -0.2% | -0.1% | 1.7% | 43% |
| 5-day | +0.2% | +0.2% | 5.9% | 52% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 miss | 89.98 | 83.96 | -6.7% | -2.7% | -3.1% | +2.2% | +3.3% |
| 2026-04-22 miss | 79.20 | 67.76 | -14.4% | -4.2% | -4.7% | -6.1% | -8.5% |
| 2026-01-28 beat | 105.90 | 121.54 | +14.8% | +1.3% | +1.7% | +5.2% | -1.4% |
| 2025-10-22 beat | 109.36 | 112.33 | +2.7% | -0.8% | -1.2% | -4.7% | -6.9% |
| 2025-07-23 beat | 106.20 | 108.54 | +2.2% | +1.1% | -0.1% | -3.4% | +0.7% |
| 2025-04-22 miss | 106.07 | 94.83 | -10.6% | -1.9% | +0.5% | -0.7% | -1.2% |
| 2025-01-28 beat | 129.35 | 139.93 | +8.2% | +1.1% | -3.8% | -3.4% | -10.9% |
| 2024-10-22 miss | 131.00 | 130.50 | -0.4% | -0.6% | -2.3% | -3.2% | -4.6% |
| 2024-07-23 miss | 121.21 | 120.69 | -0.4% | -1.5% | -0.5% | +0.7% | +3.7% |
| 2024-04-23 beat | 103.97 | 116.41 | +12.0% | +0.3% | +0.4% | -5.1% | -4.8% |
| 2024-01-30 beat | 121.50 | 121.56 | +0.1% | +0.3% | +0.2% | +3.0% | +7.1% |
| 2023-10-24 beat | 115.60 | 125.26 | +8.3% | +0.0% | -2.2% | +0.5% | +15.5% |
| 2023-07-25 beat | 101.50 | 116.54 | +14.8% | -0.3% | +2.1% | -0.6% | -3.6% |
| 2023-04-25 beat | 88.96 | 99.89 | +12.3% | +0.2% | -3.6% | +2.3% | -2.9% |
| 2023-01-31 beat | 98.88 | 133.44 | +35.0% | +3.5% | +5.0% | -2.0% | -1.0% |
| 2022-10-25 miss | 121.71 | 118.51 | -2.6% | +0.1% | +5.7% | -0.7% | +5.2% |
| 2022-07-26 miss | 126.82 | 123.65 | -2.5% | -0.6% | -2.3% | -2.6% | -1.6% |
| 2022-04-26 beat | 96.94 | 116.56 | +20.2% | +1.7% | +1.4% | +1.4% | -5.1% |
| 2022-02-01 miss | 99.77 | 89.09 | -10.7% | -1.1% | +0.7% | -1.2% | -8.1% |
| 2021-10-21 miss | 88.98 | 86.44 | -2.9% | -0.6% | -3.0% | +0.0% | +6.4% |
| 2021-07-21 beat | 72.43 | 82.45 | +13.8% | +0.0% | -0.1% | +3.5% | +3.6% |
| 2021-04-21 miss | 65.08 | 63.21 | -2.9% | -0.5% | -2.2% | +4.3% | -1.6% |
| 2021-01-28 miss | 79.82 | 76.93 | -3.6% | +0.6% | -0.4% | +0.8% | +1.2% |
| 2020-10-20 beat | 60.22 | 65.11 | +8.1% | +4.7% | +3.5% | -9.1% | -2.5% |
| 2020-07-22 miss | 43.93 | 42.50 | -3.3% | +4.1% | +10.7% | +5.4% | +11.3% |
| 2020-04-23 miss | 45.61 | 44.96 | -1.4% | -1.3% | -3.6% | +12.9% | +14.1% |
| 2020-01-28 beat | 59.00 | 64.41 | +9.2% | -0.7% | -3.3% | -1.2% | -5.9% |
| 2019-10-18 beat | 51.52 | 56.11 | +8.9% | -0.1% | +3.0% | -4.2% | -6.2% |
| 2019-07-19 beat | 44.87 | 53.09 | +18.3% | +1.2% | +0.3% | -6.0% | +0.9% |
| 2019-04-22 beat | 34.45 | 47.64 | +38.3% | +1.5% | +6.1% | -4.3% | +1.1% |
| 2019-01-25 beat | 49.62 | 58.57 | +18.0% | +3.0% | -0.2% | +4.7% | +4.6% |
| 2018-10-18 miss | 50.94 | 48.28 | -5.2% | -3.3% | -3.8% | -0.1% | +10.9% |
| 2018-07-20 beat | 47.21 | 49.05 | +3.9% | -2.8% | -8.3% | -3.5% | -9.9% |
| 2018-04-19 beat | 31.79 | 39.34 | +23.7% | +3.6% | +0.4% | +3.0% | -2.9% |
| 2018-01-25 miss | 48.04 | 43.41 | -9.6% | -4.7% | -6.6% | -6.1% | -11.0% |
| 2017-10-19 beat | 36.07 | 38.02 | +5.4% | +3.1% | +7.8% | +2.4% | +4.2% |
| 2017-07-21 beat | 28.92 | 35.19 | +21.7% | +3.4% | +8.2% | -0.9% | +2.1% |
| 2017-04-20 beat | 20.81 | 25.12 | +20.7% | -1.3% | -4.3% | +2.0% | +12.6% |
| 2017-01-25 beat | 33.09 | 37.80 | +14.2% | +1.4% | +10.6% | -1.3% | +2.6% |
| 2016-10-20 miss | 29.89 | 28.46 | -4.8% | -1.5% | -2.6% | -3.6% | +1.4% |
| 2016-07-21 miss | 26.20 | 22.01 | -16.0% | -0.8% | -0.6% | -1.3% | -3.5% |
| 2016-04-21 beat | 14.96 | 15.79 | +5.6% | -1.0% | -3.3% | -1.4% | +0.3% |
| 2016-01-26 beat | 30.02 | 31.92 | +6.3% | +1.5% | +4.4% | +0.0% | -1.2% |
| 2015-10-20 beat | 26.87 | 27.11 | +0.9% | -0.3% | +2.3% | +2.8% | +4.1% |
| 2015-07-21 beat | 19.01 | 21.91 | +15.3% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +2.7% | +11.4% |
| 2015-04-21 miss | 9.56 | 9.22 | -3.5% | +0.0% | +3.4% | +0.1% | +2.0% |
| 2015-01-26 miss | 24.40 | 23.24 | -4.8% | -4.2% | -2.7% | +2.6% | +9.2% |
| 2014-10-20 | 20.70 | 20.70 | — | +2.0% | +6.0% | +2.4% | +2.7% |
| 2014-07-21 beat | 14.27 | 15.17 | +6.3% | +2.1% | +5.7% | +0.1% | +4.9% |
| 2014-04-21 miss | 9.80 | 5.16 | -47.3% | -4.1% | -4.1% | +0.2% | +2.3% |
| 2014-01-27 beat | 16.31 | 21.15 | +29.7% | +0.0% | +5.2% | +7.1% | +11.9% |
| 2013-10-21 beat | 15.33 | 17.67 | +15.3% | +2.0% | -4.3% | +4.5% | +6.4% |
| 2013-07-22 miss | 12.14 | 10.11 | -16.7% | -1.7% | -1.9% | -2.8% | -4.4% |
| 2013-04-22 miss | 8.03 | 6.84 | -14.8% | -5.8% | -2.2% | +3.5% | +1.7% |
| 2013-01-24 beat | 11.16 | 11.98 | +7.4% | +1.4% | +2.0% | +2.9% | -1.9% |
| 2012-10-18 beat | 9.52 | 10.33 | +8.5% | +1.5% | +3.5% | -0.9% | -1.7% |
| 2012-07-19 miss | 9.08 | 8.97 | -1.2% | -2.5% | -14.0% | +2.7% | +13.3% |
| 2012-04-19 miss | 4.20 | 3.90 | -7.2% | -0.6% | -0.2% | +3.6% | +1.2% |
| 2012-01-26 miss | 10.43 | 6.32 | -39.4% | -3.2% | -6.2% | +1.7% | -1.0% |
| 2011-10-20 beat | 7.62 | 7.98 | +4.8% | -0.6% | -1.0% | +1.1% | -1.9% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.