ORLY chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.2% | -1.7% | 4.1% | 30% |
| Day 2 | -0.2% | -0.5% | 1.5% | 30% |
| Day 3 | -0.4% | -0.4% | 1.3% | 40% |
| 5-day | -0.1% | +0.6% | 4.8% | 50% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 beat | 0.86 | 0.86 | +0.2% | -2.2% | -3.6% | +6.9% | +1.3% |
| 2026-04-29 beat | 0.70 | 0.72 | +3.4% | +4.7% | +8.4% | -4.8% | -12.8% |
| 2026-02-04 miss | 0.72 | 0.71 | -2.1% | -4.5% | -4.0% | +2.5% | +1.9% |
| 2025-10-22 beat | 0.83 | 0.85 | +2.4% | -1.7% | -2.9% | -3.2% | +2.2% |
| 2025-07-23 miss | 0.78 | 0.78 | -0.3% | +0.4% | +2.9% | +0.2% | +4.2% |
| 2025-04-23 miss | 0.66 | 0.62 | -5.2% | -1.6% | -2.1% | +4.1% | +1.6% |
| 2025-02-05 miss | 0.65 | 0.63 | -2.7% | -0.8% | -1.3% | +0.4% | +1.2% |
| 2024-10-23 miss | 0.77 | 0.76 | -1.2% | -1.4% | +0.0% | -3.9% | +2.3% |
| 2024-07-24 miss | 0.73 | 0.70 | -4.0% | +0.0% | +4.0% | +3.7% | +2.2% |
| 2024-04-24 miss | 0.62 | 0.61 | -0.9% | -6.7% | -3.5% | -4.5% | -6.4% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.