ORLY chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +1.4% | +2.5% | 5.1% | 60% |
| Day 2 | +0.3% | +0.2% | 1.5% | 58% |
| Day 3 | +0.0% | +0.2% | 1.2% | 53% |
| 5-day | +2.3% | +2.8% | 6.0% | 65% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 beat | 0.86 | 0.86 | +0.2% | -2.2% | -3.6% | +6.9% | +1.3% |
| 2026-04-29 beat | 0.70 | 0.72 | +3.4% | +4.7% | +8.4% | -4.8% | -12.8% |
| 2026-02-04 miss | 0.72 | 0.71 | -2.1% | -4.5% | -4.0% | +2.5% | +1.9% |
| 2025-10-22 beat | 0.83 | 0.85 | +2.4% | -1.7% | -2.9% | -3.2% | +2.2% |
| 2025-07-23 miss | 0.78 | 0.78 | -0.3% | +0.4% | +2.9% | +0.2% | +4.2% |
| 2025-04-23 miss | 0.66 | 0.62 | -5.2% | -1.6% | -2.1% | +4.1% | +1.6% |
| 2025-02-05 miss | 0.65 | 0.63 | -2.7% | -0.8% | -1.3% | +0.4% | +1.2% |
| 2024-10-23 miss | 0.77 | 0.76 | -1.2% | -1.4% | +0.0% | -3.9% | +2.3% |
| 2024-07-24 miss | 0.73 | 0.70 | -4.0% | +0.0% | +4.0% | +3.7% | +2.2% |
| 2024-04-24 miss | 0.62 | 0.61 | -0.9% | -6.7% | -3.5% | -4.5% | -6.4% |
| 2024-02-07 beat | 0.61 | 0.62 | +0.5% | -5.3% | -4.3% | +2.7% | +6.4% |
| 2023-10-25 beat | 0.69 | 0.71 | +3.1% | +3.3% | +5.3% | +2.9% | +6.7% |
| 2023-07-26 beat | 0.67 | 0.68 | +1.3% | -1.7% | -4.8% | +1.2% | +1.2% |
| 2023-04-26 beat | 0.54 | 0.55 | +3.1% | -1.1% | +2.4% | +2.0% | +0.8% |
| 2023-02-08 beat | 0.52 | 0.56 | +8.2% | +2.4% | +3.8% | +5.5% | +0.2% |
| 2022-10-26 beat | 0.57 | 0.61 | +7.8% | +5.1% | +4.6% | +0.8% | +4.8% |
| 2022-07-27 miss | 0.60 | 0.59 | -2.4% | -2.3% | +2.6% | +0.0% | -1.2% |
| 2022-04-27 miss | 0.50 | 0.48 | -3.8% | -8.3% | -12.6% | -3.2% | +3.9% |
| 2022-02-09 beat | 0.40 | 0.51 | +26.9% | -1.2% | +2.8% | +2.5% | +2.5% |
| 2021-10-27 beat | 0.48 | 0.54 | +11.9% | -1.1% | -4.0% | +1.5% | +3.1% |
| 2021-07-28 beat | 0.50 | 0.56 | +11.0% | -3.2% | -2.2% | +1.5% | -0.7% |
| 2021-04-28 beat | 0.36 | 0.47 | +29.9% | +0.6% | +3.4% | +2.6% | -2.2% |
| 2021-02-10 beat | 0.34 | 0.36 | +5.2% | -0.2% | -5.1% | +6.3% | +11.8% |
| 2020-10-28 beat | 0.43 | 0.47 | +10.1% | -0.5% | -1.4% | +3.2% | +1.4% |
| 2020-07-29 beat | 0.28 | 0.47 | +67.7% | +5.3% | +5.4% | -3.0% | -3.7% |
| 2020-04-22 beat | 0.26 | 0.26 | +0.5% | +4.9% | +1.7% | +3.2% | +8.1% |
| 2020-02-05 miss | 0.28 | 0.28 | -0.4% | -3.6% | -5.0% | -1.4% | -6.2% |
| 2019-10-23 beat | 0.32 | 0.34 | +6.1% | +4.9% | +9.2% | -0.4% | +0.2% |
| 2019-07-24 miss | 0.31 | 0.30 | -3.2% | -2.8% | -5.2% | -0.3% | +0.4% |
| 2019-04-24 miss | 0.27 | 0.27 | -0.1% | -4.1% | -4.2% | +0.3% | -3.5% |
| 2019-02-06 miss | 0.25 | 0.25 | -0.8% | +2.3% | +3.3% | +4.8% | +0.2% |
| 2018-10-24 beat | 0.29 | 0.30 | +4.5% | -1.5% | +0.5% | -1.2% | +8.1% |
| 2018-07-25 beat | 0.27 | 0.29 | +5.7% | +2.6% | +2.2% | +1.7% | +8.9% |
| 2018-04-25 beat | 0.24 | 0.24 | +0.9% | +12.0% | +13.1% | +0.6% | +4.2% |
| 2018-02-07 beat | 0.19 | 0.23 | +26.4% | +1.6% | +0.1% | +0.0% | -1.2% |
| 2017-10-25 beat | 0.21 | 0.21 | +2.2% | -5.3% | +5.6% | +0.2% | +1.1% |
| 2017-07-26 beat | 0.19 | 0.20 | +4.8% | +4.8% | +7.4% | +2.1% | +0.5% |
| 2017-04-26 miss | 0.19 | 0.19 | -1.8% | -1.0% | -3.0% | -2.5% | -3.4% |
| 2017-02-07 beat | 0.17 | 0.17 | +1.9% | +0.4% | +3.6% | -0.4% | -0.7% |
| 2016-10-26 miss | 0.20 | 0.19 | -0.9% | -2.6% | -8.7% | +3.5% | +8.5% |
| 2016-07-27 miss | 0.18 | 0.18 | -1.3% | +0.5% | +4.0% | +0.0% | -3.6% |
| 2016-04-27 beat | 0.17 | 0.17 | +3.5% | -4.2% | -2.9% | -0.6% | +0.3% |
| 2016-02-10 beat | 0.14 | 0.15 | +5.2% | +2.2% | +5.4% | +3.3% | +8.9% |
| 2015-10-28 beat | 0.16 | 0.18 | +10.8% | +3.9% | +4.9% | -0.9% | -4.4% |
| 2015-07-29 beat | 0.15 | 0.15 | +1.2% | +1.9% | -1.5% | +1.3% | +1.2% |
| 2015-04-22 beat | 0.13 | 0.14 | +6.5% | +3.8% | +5.4% | -4.6% | -1.7% |
| 2015-02-04 beat | 0.11 | 0.12 | +5.1% | +4.7% | +8.1% | -0.8% | -0.8% |
| 2014-10-22 beat | 0.13 | 0.14 | +5.4% | +4.9% | +6.4% | +4.5% | +6.9% |
| 2014-07-23 beat | 0.12 | 0.13 | +3.0% | +4.5% | +3.5% | -1.2% | +2.4% |
| 2014-04-23 beat | 0.11 | 0.11 | +1.9% | -1.7% | -0.3% | +0.2% | +0.6% |
| 2014-02-05 beat | 0.09 | 0.09 | +5.6% | +5.8% | +9.0% | +4.2% | +2.8% |
| 2013-10-23 beat | 0.11 | 0.11 | +2.6% | -6.3% | -6.9% | -1.0% | +0.5% |
| 2013-07-24 beat | 0.10 | 0.11 | +5.8% | +5.3% | +4.1% | +4.5% | +0.8% |
| 2013-04-24 beat | 0.09 | 0.09 | +0.9% | +3.0% | +5.0% | +1.9% | +4.4% |
| 2013-02-06 beat | 0.07 | 0.08 | +5.7% | +8.0% | +8.0% | +1.6% | +4.3% |
| 2012-10-24 beat | 0.08 | 0.09 | +3.8% | +5.8% | +3.4% | +4.2% | +10.1% |
| 2012-07-25 beat | 0.08 | 0.08 | +1.2% | -1.3% | -3.5% | -2.8% | -0.1% |
| 2012-04-25 beat | 0.07 | 0.08 | +9.7% | +4.5% | +6.2% | +3.2% | -6.2% |
| 2012-02-08 beat | 0.06 | 0.06 | +8.6% | -1.8% | +1.1% | +0.2% | +6.8% |
| 2011-10-26 beat | 0.07 | 0.07 | +9.8% | +6.0% | +8.4% | +1.6% | -0.5% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.