ORLY chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.3% | -0.7% | 4.9% | 45% |
| Day 2 | +0.1% | -0.1% | 1.5% | 50% |
| Day 3 | +0.0% | +0.1% | 1.3% | 55% |
| 5-day | +0.6% | +2.2% | 6.1% | 55% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 beat | 0.86 | 0.86 | +0.2% | -2.2% | -3.6% | +6.9% | +1.3% |
| 2026-04-29 beat | 0.70 | 0.72 | +3.4% | +4.7% | +8.4% | -4.8% | -12.8% |
| 2026-02-04 miss | 0.72 | 0.71 | -2.1% | -4.5% | -4.0% | +2.5% | +1.9% |
| 2025-10-22 beat | 0.83 | 0.85 | +2.4% | -1.7% | -2.9% | -3.2% | +2.2% |
| 2025-07-23 miss | 0.78 | 0.78 | -0.3% | +0.4% | +2.9% | +0.2% | +4.2% |
| 2025-04-23 miss | 0.66 | 0.62 | -5.2% | -1.6% | -2.1% | +4.1% | +1.6% |
| 2025-02-05 miss | 0.65 | 0.63 | -2.7% | -0.8% | -1.3% | +0.4% | +1.2% |
| 2024-10-23 miss | 0.77 | 0.76 | -1.2% | -1.4% | +0.0% | -3.9% | +2.3% |
| 2024-07-24 miss | 0.73 | 0.70 | -4.0% | +0.0% | +4.0% | +3.7% | +2.2% |
| 2024-04-24 miss | 0.62 | 0.61 | -0.9% | -6.7% | -3.5% | -4.5% | -6.4% |
| 2024-02-07 beat | 0.61 | 0.62 | +0.5% | -5.3% | -4.3% | +2.7% | +6.4% |
| 2023-10-25 beat | 0.69 | 0.71 | +3.1% | +3.3% | +5.3% | +2.9% | +6.7% |
| 2023-07-26 beat | 0.67 | 0.68 | +1.3% | -1.7% | -4.8% | +1.2% | +1.2% |
| 2023-04-26 beat | 0.54 | 0.55 | +3.1% | -1.1% | +2.4% | +2.0% | +0.8% |
| 2023-02-08 beat | 0.52 | 0.56 | +8.2% | +2.4% | +3.8% | +5.5% | +0.2% |
| 2022-10-26 beat | 0.57 | 0.61 | +7.8% | +5.1% | +4.6% | +0.8% | +4.8% |
| 2022-07-27 miss | 0.60 | 0.59 | -2.4% | -2.3% | +2.6% | +0.0% | -1.2% |
| 2022-04-27 miss | 0.50 | 0.48 | -3.8% | -8.3% | -12.6% | -3.2% | +3.9% |
| 2022-02-09 beat | 0.40 | 0.51 | +26.9% | -1.2% | +2.8% | +2.5% | +2.5% |
| 2021-10-27 beat | 0.48 | 0.54 | +11.9% | -1.1% | -4.0% | +1.5% | +3.1% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.