PHM chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +3.0% | +2.8% | 5.1% | 70% |
| Day 2 | -1.7% | -1.6% | 1.2% | 10% |
| Day 3 | +0.4% | +1.1% | 2.3% | 70% |
| 5-day | +2.3% | +4.7% | 6.6% | 60% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 beat | 2.36 | 2.48 | +5.3% | +3.0% | +2.0% | +4.4% | +0.7% |
| 2026-04-23 miss | 1.81 | 1.79 | -1.1% | -2.0% | +2.4% | -6.3% | -10.9% |
| 2026-01-29 beat | 2.81 | 2.88 | +2.6% | +0.8% | +3.2% | +5.3% | +5.1% |
| 2025-10-21 beat | 2.89 | 2.96 | +2.5% | -6.0% | +0.0% | -2.1% | -7.7% |
| 2025-07-22 beat | 2.97 | 3.03 | +2.1% | +8.4% | +11.5% | -3.4% | +4.4% |
| 2025-04-22 beat | 2.42 | 2.57 | +6.0% | +3.1% | +8.4% | +0.8% | -1.8% |
| 2025-01-30 beat | 3.27 | 4.43 | +35.5% | +3.0% | +4.9% | -7.2% | -13.9% |
| 2024-10-22 beat | 3.18 | 3.35 | +5.5% | -3.9% | -7.2% | -3.2% | -4.3% |
| 2024-07-23 beat | 3.27 | 3.58 | +9.3% | -3.9% | +0.0% | +6.0% | +2.3% |
| 2024-04-23 beat | 2.36 | 3.10 | +31.2% | -0.7% | +4.6% | -1.2% | +1.3% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.