PHM chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +1.7% | +2.2% | 4.8% | 67% |
| Day 2 | -0.1% | -0.5% | 2.5% | 43% |
| Day 3 | +1.1% | +1.7% | 2.4% | 70% |
| 5-day | +2.5% | +3.5% | 6.7% | 60% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 beat | 2.36 | 2.48 | +5.3% | +3.0% | +2.0% | +4.4% | +0.7% |
| 2026-04-23 miss | 1.81 | 1.79 | -1.1% | -2.0% | +2.4% | -6.3% | -10.9% |
| 2026-01-29 beat | 2.81 | 2.88 | +2.6% | +0.8% | +3.2% | +5.3% | +5.1% |
| 2025-10-21 beat | 2.89 | 2.96 | +2.5% | -6.0% | +0.0% | -2.1% | -7.7% |
| 2025-07-22 beat | 2.97 | 3.03 | +2.1% | +8.4% | +11.5% | -3.4% | +4.4% |
| 2025-04-22 beat | 2.42 | 2.57 | +6.0% | +3.1% | +8.4% | +0.8% | -1.8% |
| 2025-01-30 beat | 3.27 | 4.43 | +35.5% | +3.0% | +4.9% | -7.2% | -13.9% |
| 2024-10-22 beat | 3.18 | 3.35 | +5.5% | -3.9% | -7.2% | -3.2% | -4.3% |
| 2024-07-23 beat | 3.27 | 3.58 | +9.3% | -3.9% | +0.0% | +6.0% | +2.3% |
| 2024-04-23 beat | 2.36 | 3.10 | +31.2% | -0.7% | +4.6% | -1.2% | +1.3% |
| 2024-01-30 beat | 3.23 | 3.52 | +9.0% | +1.7% | -0.5% | -2.8% | +2.7% |
| 2023-10-24 beat | 2.82 | 2.90 | +2.9% | -1.9% | +1.5% | +2.7% | +22.7% |
| 2023-07-25 beat | 2.54 | 3.00 | +18.0% | -0.9% | +6.2% | +1.4% | -4.5% |
| 2023-04-25 beat | 1.82 | 2.35 | +29.3% | +1.5% | +1.7% | +1.3% | +1.2% |
| 2023-01-31 beat | 2.92 | 3.85 | +31.7% | +8.1% | +9.4% | +2.1% | -4.6% |
| 2022-10-25 miss | 2.81 | 2.69 | -4.1% | +0.0% | +4.2% | +0.6% | +13.0% |
| 2022-07-26 beat | 2.63 | 2.73 | +3.8% | +1.1% | -4.3% | -2.6% | -1.7% |
| 2022-04-28 beat | 1.73 | 1.83 | +5.6% | +2.1% | +4.5% | -0.5% | +5.0% |
| 2022-02-01 beat | 2.30 | 2.51 | +9.1% | +2.7% | +0.9% | -5.7% | -7.4% |
| 2021-10-26 beat | 1.79 | 1.82 | +1.6% | -1.0% | -2.4% | -1.8% | +8.2% |
| 2021-07-27 beat | 1.73 | 1.90 | +10.1% | -2.6% | +0.1% | +3.7% | +1.6% |
| 2021-04-27 miss | 1.20 | 1.13 | -5.9% | +2.9% | +4.3% | +6.6% | +0.8% |
| 2021-01-28 beat | 1.40 | 1.49 | +6.8% | -7.2% | -5.7% | +5.7% | +2.0% |
| 2020-10-22 beat | 1.15 | 1.34 | +16.6% | -2.5% | -5.7% | -2.9% | +2.4% |
| 2020-07-23 beat | 0.89 | 1.29 | +45.6% | +6.3% | +4.7% | +6.2% | +15.0% |
| 2020-04-23 beat | 0.71 | 0.74 | +4.7% | -3.1% | -0.8% | +18.4% | +39.5% |
| 2020-01-28 beat | 1.10 | 1.14 | +3.5% | +2.3% | +5.7% | -5.9% | -10.9% |
| 2019-10-22 beat | 0.92 | 1.01 | +9.8% | +1.0% | +3.2% | -1.1% | +0.5% |
| 2019-07-23 beat | 0.82 | 0.86 | +4.9% | -4.1% | -8.3% | +4.6% | +7.2% |
| 2019-04-23 beat | 0.47 | 0.59 | +24.9% | +1.8% | +3.7% | +0.4% | +2.5% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.