SABR chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.4% | +0.1% | 18.5% | 50% |
| Day 2 | -3.1% | -3.3% | 6.2% | 20% |
| Day 3 | -1.8% | -0.9% | 4.1% | 40% |
| 5-day | -4.8% | -7.0% | 18.2% | 30% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 miss | -0.07 | -0.17 | -142.9% | -5.0% | +5.7% | -1.3% | -4.9% |
| 2026-05-07 beat | -0.01 | 0.06 | +700.0% | +18.6% | +13.1% | -23.7% | -20.0% |
| 2026-02-18 beat | -0.05 | -0.01 | +80.0% | +33.2% | +24.7% | -20.5% | +20.1% |
| 2025-11-05 miss | 0.06 | -0.01 | -116.0% | -0.5% | +0.0% | -10.5% | -18.5% |
| 2025-08-07 miss | — | -0.02 | -500.6% | -26.3% | -35.7% | -5.2% | -9.8% |
| 2025-05-07 miss | 0.01 | — | -127.0% | -0.8% | +0.0% | +22.0% | +12.7% |
| 2025-02-20 beat | -0.10 | -0.08 | +21.9% | +5.0% | +22.4% | -0.5% | -15.7% |
| 2024-10-31 miss | -0.04 | -0.04 | -14.3% | -10.2% | -22.0% | +9.7% | +23.1% |
| 2024-08-01 beat | -0.08 | -0.05 | +37.5% | +9.0% | -4.4% | -10.4% | -7.0% |
| 2024-05-02 beat | -0.06 | -0.02 | +68.4% | +8.3% | +0.3% | -3.8% | +9.3% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.