SMG chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -3.5% | -4.2% | 8.3% | 20% |
| Day 2 | +0.5% | +0.7% | 3.0% | 70% |
| Day 3 | -1.0% | -1.3% | 2.3% | 20% |
| 5-day | -4.9% | -3.4% | 8.2% | 30% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 beat | 2.52 | 2.82 | +11.7% | -1.0% | -3.8% | -6.0% | -13.8% |
| 2026-04-29 beat | 4.01 | 4.53 | +12.9% | +5.1% | -4.5% | +0.7% | -5.5% |
| 2026-01-28 beat | -1.00 | -0.77 | +23.3% | -0.6% | -0.7% | +3.0% | +11.7% |
| 2025-11-05 beat | -1.98 | -1.96 | +0.8% | -2.0% | +2.9% | +4.4% | -3.9% |
| 2025-07-30 beat | 2.26 | 2.59 | +14.5% | -2.5% | -8.5% | -2.6% | -1.3% |
| 2025-04-30 beat | 3.93 | 3.98 | +1.3% | -2.9% | -5.9% | +6.9% | +18.2% |
| 2025-01-29 beat | -1.23 | -0.89 | +27.8% | +0.7% | -5.8% | -2.6% | -17.9% |
| 2024-11-06 miss | -1.96 | -2.31 | -17.7% | -9.1% | -20.5% | -2.0% | +1.6% |
| 2024-07-31 beat | 1.92 | 2.31 | +20.3% | +3.9% | +11.9% | -12.7% | -9.6% |
| 2024-05-01 beat | 3.44 | 3.69 | +7.3% | +2.1% | -0.4% | -2.5% | +2.1% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.